Even rescuing KZN from the floods might not be enough for Ramaphosa to win over province

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to secure KwaZulu-Natal against the current flood disaster is unlikely to secure his approval for a second term.

Prof Dirk Kotze, political scientist from the University of South Africa, said Ramaphosa’s reputation would be boosted in KwaZulu-Natal after the floods as people would see that he took them seriously. However, that won’t necessarily turn into votes for him at the next ANC conference.

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“These alliances are formed over a long period of time and they are not influenced by a single event. But it will give him a better reputation in the province,” Kotze said.

He said Ramaphosa’s support had improved in KZN. The recent results of the eThekwini ANC conference, where Zandile Gumede beat Thabani Nyawose by 210 to 181 votes for the position of chair, showed a split of loyalties between the Zuma and the Ramaphosa factions.

“It looks like, though the province is split in terms of its support, there is an even balance. Ramaphosa has quite substantial support because it was the same in all the top five positions at eThekwini,” Kotze said.

Ramaphosa’s decision to prioritise the situation, declare a national state of disaster and even cancel his trip to Saudi Arabia was meant to show that he took the province’s plight seriously.

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Ramaphosa was trying to reach out to the people as part of his government’s work but it was also good for him from an ANC political point of view, because KZN felt marginalised in ANC politics since the Nasrec elective conference of December 2017.

“KZN is no longer dominant in the ANC, none of its leaders are in the top six, the Zuma trial and his short stint in jail also added to the province’s feeling isolated,” Kotze said.

Another political analyst, Sanusha Naidu, also believed that Ramaphosa would not be able to make political mileage out of the KZN disaster.

According to Naidu, the president was faced with a dual challenge in KZN. His own disconnections to KwaZulu-Natal as a leader plays a role and the rot of corruption that resulted in poor service delivery under Gumede in eThekwini also plays in.

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Additionally, there was the instability resulting from the July 2021 riots, the failures of the security cluster in containing the situation and the uncertainty around who should be held accountable. This makes it difficult for Ramaphosa to derive much transactional value from the situation, Naidu said.