Ace’s fight might be doomed from the start

Suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule is fighting for his political life, which is destined to come to an end if he stayed in courts and away from Luthuli House for long.

A conviction after such a trial would obviously land him in a political wilderness. In that case, he can’t return and fighting to stay put is the best option for him.

More than proving that the ANC constitution is unconstitutional, he had sensed the danger he was in politically – the fear of being in the political ice away from the ANC – where it’s all happening.

The prospects of being in the courts for a number of years, increased his resolve to opt for a fight. He knew by the time he returned at the end of his trial if he was acquitted, his term as secretary-general would have expired anyway and a new ANC leadership would have been elected at the next conference.

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Worse still, should he be convicted, the door would be completely shut for him and his ambition to become the next ANC president would be dashed.

He had had planned to challenge Cyril Ramaphosa for the ANC presidency in 2022, believing he is more powerful and has grassroots support. His power is yet to be tested in ANC elections.

But after Ramaphosa had gained political upper hand within the party since Nasrec, Magashule’s prospects looked even bleaker even if he was not suspended. Save for his supporters inside, the party national executive committee had closed ranks against him.

Staying in the cold was always bound to be the destiny for the Parys, Free State-born leader because historically corruption trials involving prominent political figures tended to drag on over many years.

Long trials were politically good for his close ally Jacob Zuma who did employed every trick in the book to stay out of court, contrary Magashule prayed for his matter to be expedited so that he could regain his power as the boss of Luthuli House.

Zuma had been in and out of courts for at least 14 years on charges of corruption because he liked it. He was mainly responsible for the delays due to his various excuses including changing lawyers midstream.

Contrary to his wishes, Magashule’s matter was likely to drag on due to the multiple charges he faced and likely additional charges the NPA promised to add on his charge sheet. He is facing more than 70 counts of corruption, fraud, money laundering over the Free State R255 million asbestos roofing saga which occurred during his reign as provincial premier.

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Besides, the fact that he was charged with 15 other accused further complicated matter which potentially could be postponed frequently.

Magashule was aware of the devastating political implications having no power after being kicked out of Luthuli House. He realized he must fight the step aside rule and his suspension so that in the meantime, he must return to his post.

Being on the sidelines reduced his power and ability to manipulate party processes in his favour. Magashule and his Radical Economic Transformation (RET) grouping targeted the upcoming the ANC national general council and the upcoming local government election as platforms to strengthen themselves.

The RET clique within the governing party planned to use the NGC and the local polls to mobilise against Ramaphosa but his suspension derailed the plot. This was impossible to execute without Magashule as its chief architect especially that the ANC gagged him against making public statements or mobilizing or represent the party in public or any platform.