2024 Elections: ‘End is nigh’ for ANC

The ANC should be worried about 2024, following the sudden loss of the two seats it only won during last November local government elections.

More than that, though, there has been a major decline in support over the past decade.

Election analyst Dawie Scholtz, who has been tracking by-election and national poll results, zeroed in on the results from ward 53 in Soweto.

The ANC’s support in the ward decline from 90% in 2011, to just 32% this week.

“The end is nigh,“ he tweeted.

Scholtz said the voter turnout in Soweto ward 53 showed that many voters were simply “disengaging”, judging from the fact that the voter turnout had dropped from 59% in 2011, to 29%.

Scholtz noted the ANC’s support had been stable in the Eastern Cape (EC), while falling in other areas.

“But ActionSA [ASA] hasn’t been contesting there yet,” he said. “The by-election on 6 July in KwaNobuhle, Nelson Mandela Bay, will be telling as to ASA’s potential to disturb EC patterns.”

While the ANC was “holding firm” in the Eastern Cape it was losing ground to the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) in North West and surrounds and was dropping votes to the EFF and ActionSA in urban areas.

He said the Democratic Alliance (DA) was “largely holding with its base”, but ActionSA was “making inroads”.

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Scholtz said he had run the data from the latest elections into his own model for projecting the results in the 2024 national polls and “the model sees big trouble for the ANC”.

Political analyst Prof Theo Venter from North-West University’s Potchefstroom campus, blamed the ANC’s poor showing on its ongoing infighting.

“They should be very concerned. You cannot win elections to an external party [DA, EFF, Inkatha Freedom Party] if your internal tensions and factional battles consume all of your political energy,” Venter said.

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The ANC lost in its strongholds where, last November, it held sway with the voters in Gauteng and the Northern Cape. The same voters decided to give the EFF and DA a chance in the Rand West City’s Bekkersdal and Carnavon respectively a mere six months later.

In November, voters in both wards gave the ANC a clear mandate to represent them, only to change their minds.

The low voter turnouts are believed to have also contributed to the ANC’s losses.

The EFF will now control ward 29 at Rand West City municipality in Gauteng. Its councillor, Lindokuhle Emmanuel Biyela, got 54.81% against the 47.95% received by the ANC in November, in a low 34.33% voter turnout.

While Soweto remained ANC turf, its support was reduced by the presence of the EFF and ASA, which is testing the waters and is making inroads into ANC strongholds in Gauteng.

Voters at ward 4 in Kareenerg municipality in the Northern Cape gave the DA a clear victory at 42.77%, compared to the ANC’s 32.53% in November. Voter turnout couldn’t have been an excuse for the poor ANC showing, as 72.83% of voters cast their ballots.

At the affluent Dobsonville Gardens’ ward 53, the ANC received a trashing from the electorate, reducing its tally to 34%, compared to 57% last time.

Instead, the EFF, ASA and DA increased their totals from November. Their votes were up from 13% to 30% (ASA), 16% to 28% (EFF) and from five percent to eight percent (DA).