President Cyril Ramaphosa. Photo: Gallo Images/Jeffrey Abrahams
Even as President Cyril Ramaphosa sets himself up for re-election as party – and national – president at the ANC December national elective conference, do not write the radical economic transformation (RET) faction off too soon.
While main political rival Lindiwe Sisulu’s presidential prospects are seen as slim, a political analyst has predicted the RET faction will put up a good fight, with other experts not seeing an end to further polarisation of the divided party.
Against the background of opponents coming out guns blazing over the weekend, with ANC heavyweight Tony Yengeni accusing Chief Justice Raymond Zondo of openly backing Ramaphosa in the run-up to the ANC’s highest decision-making conference, Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast of the department of history and political studies at the Nelson Mandela University warned against RET forces being written off.
“While there is no doubt about President Ramaphosa being re-elected during the December conference, indications are the forces of the radical economic transformation faction of the party are going to put up a good fight.
“They have pockets of support, especially in KwaZulu-Natal. But they also have serious weaknesses, with the main being the fact that they currently don’t have a face serving as an embodiment of what they represent,” said Breakfast.
On the other hand, he said, Ramaphosa’s advantage was that he was in control of state machinery – enjoying good relations with capital – “something that will see his presidential campaign being well funded.
“The other major boost has been the outcome of the recent ANC Eastern Cape conference, which has seen his supporters being re-elected to the PEC (provincial executive committee).
“Although Ramaphosa does not enjoy much support in KwaZulu-Natal, he has strategic provinces such as the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and Limpopo supporting him,” he said.
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Breakfast described Sisulu as a senior member of the ANC who has served in the trenches in various senior roles.
“While some people think her seniority in the ANC has something to do with her family political royalty credentials, I think she is a leader in her own right – outside the Sisulu dynasty.”
Ruling out any possibility of Ramaphosa achieving party unity, Breakfast said:
“When it comes to ANC unity espoused by Ramaphosa, we have to make a distinction between idealism and realism.
“There has been the irreparable backlash caused by the Zuma arrest during his term as president – rendering talk of an ANC unity a pipe dream.”
Independent political analyst Dr Ralph Mathekga said it would not be wise for Ramaphosa to completely disregard presidential campaigns waged by Sisulu and former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize.
“Even if it has never been the case for the president of the ANC not to be elected to the second term, it has also become a tradition for the presidential position to be contested for the second term.
“While Ramaphosa will most likely survive, it is also about those who will be elected with him in the top six of the party.”
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Echoing a view that Sisulu was unlikely to be the ANC’s first woman president, Professor Siphamandla Zondi, director of the Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg, said:
“Her chances are very slim, partly because she has not built a momentum of support inside the ANC provinces.
“As provincial conferences are taking place across the country, I see no indication of the alternative to Ramaphosa.
“In many ways, his conduct represents the mainstream in the ANC, which I dare say is centre left, with an emphasis on the centrist part.
“I doubt that the ANC is ready for a woman president because no region or province has elected a female chair.
“Women are always at the bottom of the top six – as deputy secretaries – in crude compliance with gender quotas.”
University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze said:
“The problem with Ramaphosa’s opponents is that they are working in isolation. They lack a common purpose or programme that brings them together with the same ideas.
“Chances of Lindiwe Sisulu becoming president are very slim. Her first move boomeranged with so much criticism on her stance in attacking the judiciary.
“An incumbent president has an advantage over all other candidates – it is called institutional power – the advantage of being state president and an ANC leader.”
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