EFF’s future in jeopardy as tensions rise

As the EFF faces internal turmoil in the runup to its third elective conference and the 2026 local government elections, political analysts warn that cracks are starting to show.

With key figures like Floyd Shivambu exiting and more members expected to follow, questions arise about the EFF’s future, particularly the party’s stability and ability to present a unified front in the upcoming elective conference and local elections.

Potential instability within EFF

Political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast emphasised the potential instability within the EFF.

“The departure of Shivambu has rattled the cage. Malema is intelligent but very abrasive and everything in the party revolves around him. That is why his speech was filled with anger, but what we are seeing unfold indicates that the future is bleak.

“The recent development has left the party at a critical juncture. Will some of its core be able to stay as a unified entity? But with the current woes, it might further weaken the EFF’s performance in upcoming elections,” Breakfast said.

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During the address in Soweto, the absence of the EFF’s top leadership, who were present at the party’s war council meeting, sparked questions regarding who else would be leaving the party.

But this was watered down by some party officials yesterday.

Attempt to consolidate power

Independent political analyst Goodenough Mashego said Malema’s move to dissolve the deputy president’s office and centralise authority under his leadership was an attempt to consolidate power within a crumbling party.

“He’s like a sailor who cannot control a ship that has been abandoned and the boat is now floating, vulnerable to any tide, and he is scrambling to keep whatever control he has left,” Mashego said.

“The issue of centralising power in the EFF has been apparent from the outset when some founders like Kenny Kunene and Andile Mngxitama left after the first elective conference. It was clear that Julius had no intention of sharing power.”

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Mashego said nobody challenged Malema about leading the EFF, citing that this kind of centralised power is reminiscent of figures like Robert Mugabe, who isolated those around him to maintain control.

No-one dared challenge Malema’s authority

He said no-one in the EFF dared to challenge Malema’s authority.

“It’s evident that no one challenges Julius because they see the warning signs. If someone raises their hand to contest a position, they are sidelined. If Julius were to declare himself secretary or treasurer tomorrow, no-one would challenge him. His recent statement shows he intends to build a party centred on himself, not the people,” he said.

“This is a personality cult and it’s now common to see the EFF as synonymous with Julius. What should have been a grassroots party, where anyone could aspire to leadership, is now clearly his personal vehicle.”

However, political analyst Sandile Swana said it would be premature to claim that the EFF is crumbling or falling apart.

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“The EFF leadership will be recomposed at the NPA or elective conference at the end of 2024. It is very likely that new leadership will emerge and other veterans may also emerge. The leadership right now is respectable. [Mbuyiseni] Ndlozi has not resigned,” he said.

Categorise those who left correctly

He argued that when it came to people leaving the EFF, it was critical to categorise them correctly.

“Some are disgruntled ANC members who left before [Jacob] Zuma’s departure and joined the EFF because they had no other political alternative.

“Those who joined the EFF out of frustration with the ANC were never truly committed to the EFF’s ideology. They have simply revealed their true allegiance, which remains with the ANC, specifically the Zuma faction,” he said.