DA’s moonshot pact ‘created a difficult problem’ by excluding PA and EFF

The Democratic Alliance (DA)-driven moonshot pact is unlikely to be sustainable if it fails to coalesce around a similar agenda beyond the 2024 polls, with numbers not enough to the unseat the ANC, political experts caution.

Without the support of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – SA’s third-largest opposition party – the alliance of the DA, Freedom Front Plus, ActionSA, Inkatha Freedom Party, United Independent Movement and the Spectrum National Party was only set to garner 35% of the national vote – needing 16% to get a 51%, according to independent political analyst Sandile Swana.

Dislodging ANC from power ‘impossible’

Despite the numbers – making the objective to dislodge the ANC from power in next year’s election impossible – Institute for Global Dialogue senior research associate Sanusha Naidu said it was important for the opposition alliance to coalesce around a similar agenda beyond the 2024 elections – even if they do not win the vote.

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“That will augur well for a viable opposition,” she said. “The biggest concern is on the sustainability, because you are dealing with political parties that do not share the same policy and ideology.”

If the moonshot pact – to be unveiled at next month’s national convention – was “formed merely to unseat the ANC, then it will not be sustainable”, said Naidu.

She said the pact could only have an impact at provincial level, where coalitions could be needed to govern.

“On numbers alone, the moonshot alliance is not going to win the 2024 elections, because they still need a sizable number of votes,” said Swana.

“As things stand – if you add the EFF and the ANC – you are probably sitting at about 54%. The ANC and its coalition partners hold about 65% of the vote.

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“There could be a coalition nationally and maybe in Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and in the Western Cape.”

While Swana described the coalitions as “a good thing in eroding the monopoly of power in South Africa”, he said the ANC was still going to play “a prominent role” in South African politics.

PA and EFF important role players

The moonshot alliance has created a difficult problem by banning the Patriotic Alliance and the EFF from playing a role.

“There is also a contextual problem in whether these people are looking at themselves as opposition parties, or alternative governing parties – given that they no longer need 51% to be governing parties. A 30% vote allows you to be in power.”

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Swana said the DA and the ANC no longer have a special advantage versus other political parties, which have a chance of being part of a governing alliance.

“These parties need to conceptualise themselves to be no longer opposition parties, but as alternative governing parties.”

DA’s moonshot pact ‘allows it to have its cake and eat it’

Joel Netshitenzhe, executive director at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection, referred to DA leader John Steenhuisen’s moonshot pact as “South Africa’s electoral version of Battlestar Galactica – lumbering into gear or a howling in the dark”.

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He said it could be argued the moonshot pact was “a creative solution to the existential crisis the DA has had to manage in recent years: how to approach issues of racial redress, haemorrhaging support among white Afrikaner and coloured communities; and the departure of senior black leaders”.

He added: “The crisis boils down to how the party defines liberalism in a society as unequal as ours, particularly with its racial fault lines.

“Faced with this dilemma, the DA seems to have settled on defending its right flank and fishing from a smaller pond by consolidating white support, which had remained solid at 90% in this community.

“The coalition pact allows [the DA] to have its cake and eat it, by pursuing this approach while drawing partners to pad vulnerable flanks and sue for national office.

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“Besides party mobilisation in the white community and supportive media analysts, all manner of apolitical platforms such as country clubs and golf estate community forums are being marshalled to ensure success.”

– brians@citizen.co.za