Collapse of GNU will have huge consequences for Ramaphosa – Analyst

Political analyst and North-West University Professor Andre Duvenhage believes the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU) between the African National Congress (ANC) and Democratic Alliance (DA) will put a lot of pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The ANC and DA are yet to find each other following the DA’s refusal to accept a deal put on the table by Ramaphosa, with the party telling the president that if he does not abide by the initial offer, the agreement between the DA and ANC is off.

The ANC and DA are in a deadlock over the key Trade, Industry and Competition (DTI) department which was taken off the table by Ramaphosa this week.

Pressure on Ramaphosa from the ANC

Duvenhage told The Citizen he does not believe the DA is imposing on the ANC by making a demand for certain cabinet portfolios.

“If you take the principle of representativity as your core benchmark, that is the way the ANC is doing all their things, the composition of committees in Parliament, even in terms of their general transformation policy, then the DA could get up to ten plus positions. At the moment they have six and they have four deputies. So from a representativity perspective, that is not that they are pushing them too hard.

On the other side, the pressure on Ramaphosa is not to give away any positions within the security cluster or within the economic cluster. And I think there’s specifically a huge pressure from within the ANC family on Ramaphosa with regard to the economic portfolio coming from sides such as Cosatu(Congress of South African Trade Unions), the SACP(South African Communist Party) and so on,” Duvenhage said.

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ANC’s division and the consequences

Duvenhage said the ANC is divided and this may have consequences for Ramaphosa.  

“At the moment, the ANC is a very much divided environment and my take on it is that if this Government of National Unity with the DA is not going to work, it’s going to put immense pressure on Ramaphosa and I am prepared to predict that he may be in trouble shortly after the DA.

“There’s a second huge consequence. Helen Zille made it quite clear that the agreement for a Government of National Unity between the ANC and the DA is not only applicable on the national level, it’s also applicable on the provincial level as well and this may touch both provinces, Gauteng and KZN. The ANC is definitely going to get in trouble in Gauteng and they are going to lose secondary influence in KZN paving the way for the MK party,” Duvenhage said.

Working from different ideological frameworks

Duvenhage said this will have far-reaching implications and the potential for instability.

“My take is that maybe the better way will be to get some sort of an agreement going between the ANC and the DA because I believe that is the best way forward. It’s not going to be easy. They need to work together, they need to find each other. They are working from different ideological frameworks, but this is part of South Africa. At least we have the Constitution as the basis and build on this,” Duvenhage said.

Duvenhage said the ANC and the DA and other political parties are in too much of a rush to form a GNU when it has taken other countries much longer to form a government.

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