Cyril might survive, but the damage to himself and ANC will remain

A bullish President Cyril Ramaphosa might survive a vote of no-confidence and a step-aside censure by constitutional ANC structures like the national general council (NGC), but he might find it hard to erase the impact of the public distrust, driven by the so-called farmgate.

This, said experts, would further reverse any potential gains by the party in the 2024 polls.

Facing a barrage of questions from civil society and opposition political parties on the theft two years ago of an alleged R62 million on his Limpopo game farm, Ramaphosa has been mum on his failure to report the incident – non-declaring of money earned from the sale of game to the SA Revenue Service and the SA Reserve Bank.

Three leading political analysts yesterday said that given strategic inroads made by his political allies, who have emerged victorious in recent ANC provincial elective conferences in the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and Limpopo, Ramaphosa was set to emerge unscathed from the scandal.

ANC will pay at the polls

According to Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast of the department of history and political studies at the Nelson Mandela University, independent political expert Dr Ralph Mathekga and University of Pretoria political science lecturer Roland Henwood, public disapproval of Ramaphosa’s integrity would cost the ANC in the upcoming elections.

“This is not merely a criminal matter, but political one. If former spy boss Arthur Fraser wanted to report this, he could have done so a long time ago. His timing – coinciding with the ANC national elective conference, which is around the corner – makes us question his political motives, aimed at dislodging Ramaphosa from power. “But it is important to maintain the balance between the legal matter and ANC political dynamics. The constitution makes a provision that everyone is equal before the law – and that includes the president,” said Breakfast.

Ramaphosa’s failure to come clean and report the incident has been seen as a setback to him. “While it is important to strike a balance between the political and legal aspects, we must understand that the public is less interested in the ANC factional battles, but in the direction the country is going under Ramaphosa as president.

Cyril’s detractors making it too obvious

“The biggest omission of both ANC factions is that they are prepared to tear each other part – ignoring the adverse impact this is going to have on the ANC in the polls,” said Breakfast.

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“I also find Ramaphosa’s detractors very unwise and hasty, making themselves so obvious. If you start the fire, let it develop by itself.”

Time for Ramaphosa to stop playing fair

Mathekga said the problem with Ramaphosa was that he played “fair within the ANC”.

“By not going on aggression, he will be shooting himself in the foot in front of his detractors – when he has to take the moral high ground on this issue.

“The farm incident information has been brought from within the ANC – not because people like Fraser believe in transparency – but for political machinations in the party.

“Ramaphosa’s dilemma is not about surviving within the ANC, but how he is going to account to the general public,” said Mathekga.

University of Pretoria political science lecturer Roland Henwood concurred: “He has to become more assertive, start changing and controlling the narrative – acting against his adversaries in the party. He has to answer questions to save his integrity – the taking charge narrative.”

– brians@citizen.co.z