Cabinet: Be patient, pushing president doesn’t help – analysts

In the lead-up to the much-anticipated announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa of the government of national unity (GNU) Cabinet composition, preceded by marathon negotiations and an exchange of letters among parties, experts are confident a resolution will be reached on outstanding issues.

One analyst says a brinkmanship strategy followed by compromises were normal in talks. Ramaphosa is expected to announce his Cabinet before the official opening of the seventh term of parliament on 18 July, coinciding with International Nelson Mandela Day.

An impasse in ANC-DA negotiations was fuelled by the DA pushing to be offered the powerful department of trade, industry and competition, a strategic part of the economic cluster.

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Protracted negotiations ‘inevitable’

Professor Raymond Parsons of the North-West University’s School of Business and Governance said business and markets wanted to see the ANC-DA dispute resolved to ensure certainty. But protracted negotiations were inevitable.

“The game-changing nature of SA’s recent elections need protracted negotiations to get an agreed GNU Cabinet.

“The extra time needed to finalise the Cabinet does require strong nerves and great patience, while business awaits the outcome.

“However, what matters less now is the amount of time being taken to reach finality.

“What the Cabinet will eventually look like, especially the economic cluster, is going to be key.

“If business and the markets like the outcome, the wait would have been worthwhile,” he said. Political economy expert Daniel Silk predicted “a fair amount of horse-trading, with both sides trying to play their strongest hand” as a factor behind the delay in Ramaphosa’s announcement.

Compromises, said Silke, should be expected from parties in the GNU.

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“The ANC has to understand that it is no longer the majority party, with its power now having been diminished.

“The DA also has to understand that it is not the largest player. It is not an anchor tenant.

“While the DA may be one of the bigger players, it has to understand there should be a mix of portfolios.

“The bottom line is that if you do not have an executive in place, you have a lack of confidence in the country – an inability of the executive to begin the process of governing and putting policy in place.

“The performance of the bureaucracy is currently on pause until new ministers are appointed,” said Silke. The local currency has been “on a roller-coaster ride in the past weeks – all hinging on progress in the GNU”.

“Many countries understand that creating a coalition is complex, but the dragging on is unusual in South Africa,” added Silke.

Other countries took much longer

Professor Dirk Kotzé of the University of South Africa’s political science faculty said: “When it comes to negotiations, it is about how you manage expectations of the local public and the international community.

“Our negotiations are much shorter compared to countries like the Netherlands, where they have just concluded after six months of talks.

“In Belgium, it took about a year and in Israel, they had to hold fresh elections.

“This is not exceptional in terms of international practice in negotiating coalitions.

“In our case, the expectation was that this would happen quickly and the international community followed on that expectation.”

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said the state was “plagued by poor planning and substandard staffing, an immediate concern requiring that it be reconstituted”.

“Parallel to Ramaphosa forming the Cabinet, the Presidency can convene the national dialogue,” he said.

“This may take six months to complete and produce programmed and costed plans for the next five to 10 years.

“In that process, intellectuals must also clarify key principles of development, such as the principle of full employment.

“We must remember that Ramaphosa has presided over many Cabinets since 2018, each performing worse than the previous one,” he said.

“It helps nobody to insist he must rush to form a Cabinet.”