Booting Cyril Ramaphosa ‘too risky’ for ANC

The removal of President Cyril Ramaphosa in the run-up to the ANC national elective conference next month over the Phala Phala saga could throw the all-important gathering into jeopardy, political experts warned.

Booting him now will also have serious implications for the party’s performance in the 2024 national polls, they claimed.

Ramaphosa is said to have battled an offensive staged by his detractors in the national executive committee (NEC) calling on him to step aside over the Phala Phala burglary, involving allegations of cash stashed on his farm.

Can ANC win without Ramaphosa?

While those leading the charge to unseat him – among them NEC members Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Lindiwe Sisulu and Tony Yengeni – did not pose a formidable challenge to Ramaphosa in the ANC presidential race, the removal of the incumbent president could spell “disaster”, analysts said.

“The ANC currently has no credible alternative to Ramaphosa and his removal could affect the conference and the ANC’s performance in the 2024 national elections,” warned University of Pretoria politics lecturer Roland Henwood.

“This ANC NEC debate is nothing new, because it is driven by the same people who lack credibility. The president may come out of this much stronger within the party.

“A negative impression of Ramaphosa is being created by a discredited fringe with narrow interests. I stand by my argument that the only chance to prevent him from being elected in December is to not allow him to be electable as a candidate,” said Henwood.

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Does Zweli Mkhize pose a threat?

On whether Dr Zweli Mkhize posed any threat to Ramaphosa, Henwood said: “The KwaZulu-Natal numbers backing Mkhize will not sway the outcome on their own, because previously they did not support Ramaphosa. Indications are Ramaphosa will walk it at Nasrec.”

University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotze said: “The NEC meeting is not in a position to determine Ramaphosa’s future; it is too late for that – for a leader who has already been nominated by the majority of the provinces. That such a large percentage of ANC branches nominated him means if the NEC does anything to alter the wishes of the people there will be an internal revolt.

“What his detractors hope to achieve is no longer an option, because if that happens there will be a counter saying the same must happen to Mkhize, who has been implicated in a Special Investigating Unit report. There are more reasons for Mkhize to step aside, compared to Ramaphosa.

“This NEC meeting was an attempt to sideline him, but it did not work,” said Kotze.

ALSO READ: Phala Phala: ‘There are no criminal charges’, says Presidency

Political analyst Sandile Swana said Ramaphosa is facing a moral crisis, which demands he takes leave from his two offices as ANC president and as head of state.

“His actions on Phala Phala, including allowing abuse of state power and the police, brought the ANC into disrepute. Like Jacob Zuma before him, he has a chance of continuing as president, on the basis he is innocent until proven guilty in court.”

– brians@citizen.co.za

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