ANC’s North West elective conference faces fifth postponement

There is a likelihood that North West province, one of the most anticipated African National Congress (ANC) provincial elective conferences, could be postponed for the fifth time, an insider told The Citizen on Wednesday.

The conference is scheduled for this coming weekend but according to the insider, chances are high that it won’t happen planned, due to outstanding branch issues.

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ANC national spokesperson Pule Mabe was not immediately available for comment by lunchtime but when contacted, party National Executive Committee (NEC) member Dakota Legoete said whether or not the conference takes place as planned this coming weekend will depend on the outcomes of a conference preparatory meeting, scheduled to be held on Wednesday evening.

However, coordinator for the ANC’s Interim Provincial Committee (IPC), Hlomane Chauke said they are set for the conference this weekend.

“At the moment, we are only dealing with issues of appeals which we expect to be concluded on Wednesday afternoon (today),” said Chauke.

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A political analyst who has been keeping a close eye on North West, professor Andre Duvenhage said this points to the instability in the province.

Duvenhage said should the conference go ahead as planned, there is a likelihood that it will have at least five people contesting the chairmanship position.

The conference has had to be postponed four times already due to various reasons, which included the pandemic as well as the failure to complete branch bi-annual general meetings. In the past, meetings were also marred by allegations of rigging, sabotage, and factionalism.

In the event that the conference does go ahead this weekend, Duvenhage said another surprise to the five possible nominees for the party’s top post, would be former executive mayor of Ngaka Modiri Molema, Themba Gwabeni who once faced charges of fraud and corruption for allegedly authorizing an overseas trip without following proper procedure.

Duvenhage says there are also two women candidates vying for the same position and they are current MEC for Economic Development Kenetswe Mosenogi and Motlalepula Rosho who is the MEC for Finance.

“Then we also have two main candidates in the current premier Bushy Maape and Nono Maloyi. Then there is also Supra Mahumapelo (former premier of North West).

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“I think this position will be hotly contested by three candidates, Bushy, Nono and Supra and I think the two strongest candidates seem to be Bushy who has the support of the Women’s League, the Youth League and the Veterans Group, while Nono is very well organized,” said Duvenhage.

With regards to Mahumapelo who once enjoyed a lot of support in North West, Duvenhage said it might be that he was not nominated by a huge number of branches which resulted in his support base dwindling.

“I think there was a very well-planned intervention in the province coming from among others Paul Mashatile and him being linked to Nono Maloyi and Ramaphosa, and I think they sidelined Mahumapelo. That is what I am picking up at the moment.

“My take on it is that Supra and the Radical Economic Transforming (RET) grouping are not that strong in the province and I believe it is highly likely that both Bushy and Nono are stronger aligned to the Ramaphosa group and my information tells me that Mahumapelo may get alliances going with the name of Kenetswe Mosenogi mentioned.

“I don’t where Rosho is standing at the moment, but I think Nono who is running solo at the moment, if there is challenges coming up, he may align with someone else, otherwise his slate is going to stand straightforward,” he said.

Impact of ANC infighting on service delivery

According to Duvenhage, at some stage there were around 46 municipalities placed under administration in North West between 1999 and 2018. This was the biggest number of Section 139 interventions of all provinces in the country, which was followed by KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) during the period in question.

“At the moment there is no clean audit for each of the municipalities in the province. It is really an unhealthy situation. The province is falling apart and at the core of everything is the infighting in the ANC and the state capture which took place under specifically, the leadership of Supra Mahumapelo.

“Like the country, we need to rebuild everything, because we are a province in decay. We are a failed province and we need the type of leader that can build bridges, that can transform society and the community of the North West to the point where people are working together, where can rebuild infrastructure and we can work in an environment that is corruption-free.”

André Duvenhage

In recent months, the Auditor General revealed that not a single municipality in the province is financially stable.

What Ramaphosa would be hoping for

Duvenhage is of the view that should either Bushy Maape or Nono Maloyi emerge victorious from this weekend’s provincial elective conference, it will be to the advantage of the Ramaphosa campaign for ANC’s national elective conference towards the end of this year.

“That would be a strong indication that he (Ramaphosa) has support over a broad base specifically because North West was one of the so-called ‘Premier League’ provinces that supported Jacob Zuma.”

What Ramaphosa doesn’t want

Mahumapelo – a staunch supporter of former President Jacob Zuma’s – job at the moment according to Duvenhage, is to align the province with the RET faction and if it can go the way of Maape or Maloyi, then it will be bad news for the president.

Thos may also contribute to further patterns of instability.

“I cannot see Mahumapelo going it alone, but he may do it in alignment with some of the other candidates and the names of the women candidates are coming up in some way, specifically the name of Kenetswe Mosenogi.

“There is a 60-70% chance a pro-Ramaphosa leader will take over the province, but there is a lot of monkey politics going on and sometimes it is strange combinations coming up.

“I believe Ramaphosa’s support base is the strongest but at the same time, my assessment of Ace Magashule, Jacob Zuma and Supra Mahumapelo, they will always come up with a plan. It is not that they will disappear into thin air, they will make something happen. Watch the space towards the end of the year,. and I don’t see Supra going into this without a plan.”

Mahumapelo recently attended a protest to the ANC’s Luthuli House headquarters, demanding that Ramaphosa step down due to his Phala Phala farm scandal.

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