ANC’s dual strategy: Cooperation at national level, conflict locally

While the ANC is cooperating with other political parties in the government of national unity (GNU), it seems to adopt a different approach at provincial and municipal level, setting the stage for a political fight to the death with the DA in the 2026 local government elections, say political analysts.

The DA yesterday expressed unhappiness about the ousting of Tshwane mayor Cilliers Brink through an ANC-supported no-confidence motion, but that was unlikely to trigger a walkout from the national GNU, analysts said.

But, locally, the ANC Tshwane caucus followed a similar trend to that of the party in Gauteng of not toeing the line adopted at national level – and the ANC’s national working committee’s (NWC) failure to censure its local and provincial leadership for treading a different political path to the national body, was a strategy to set the stage for a ANC-DA showdown in the 2026 polls, they said.

ANC Tshwane not toeing the line

DA Gauteng leader Fred Nel said although this did not have a direct bearing on the GNU, “it does raise an issue of a relationship with various parties serving on the GNU if we cannot agree on resolving issues like Tshwane”.

“We are concerned about the ANC’s lack of response and not being able to come to the table to discuss issues around Tshwane beforehand.

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“The Gauteng leadership of the ANC has gone rogue in doing things its own way – seemingly part of the anti-GNU faction in the ANC,” Nel said.

“But that is an internal issue for the ANC to sort out.

“We are willing to negotiate with parties, but if they are divided, negotiations become difficult.”

Tshwane coule lead to DA pulling out of GNU

University of South Africa political science professor Dirk Kotzé and independent political analyst Sandile Swana said it was unlikely Tshwane could lead to the DA pulling out of the GNU.

“The NWC discussed the Tshwane matter and it looked like there was quite a lot of negotiating between the DA and the ANC at national level to find some compromise – until the ousting of Brink happened,” said Kotze.

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“Ultimately, the NWC gave a go-ahead to the no-confidence vote proposed by the ANC regional caucus.

“The ANC national leadership did not want to take a position on its own against the provincial and local ANC leadership – something that would create disunity within the party.”

Kotze said it would also be “important for the ANC to keep its arrangement with ActionSA in the City of Johannesburg intact”.

More importent for ANC to control Joburg

“It is more important for the ANC to have control of Johannesburg than Tshwane, with the Johannesburg situation having been informed what happened in Tshwane.

“This meant the ANC and ActionSA are also being together in Tshwane,” he said.

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On the impact Tshwane would have on the GNU, Kotzé said it would have “some temporary unhappiness”, but there was “a real strong foundation to make the GNU a success”.

“Both parties have vested interests in a working GNU in considering the future outlook of the country,” Kotze said.

Swana said the GNU was “cemented by strong Business Unity SA financial ties – continuing because big business wants it so”.

GNU campaigning platform for 2026 local elections

“The GNU is also a campaigning platform for the 2026 local elections.

“These are not people sharing the same purpose and a common heart, but doing something for respective party interests,” Swana said.

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“The GNU serves their interests for upcoming elections, gaining mileage with the voters.

“The removal of the Tshwane mayor is an indication that the GNU is a competitive terrain, with the DA and the ANC not there to try to build each other up or be kind to each other.

“Facts at our disposal have shown that the ANC has agreed to the new arrangement in Tshwane – bearing in mind that, politically, the ANC is in competition with the DA.

ANC could be serving GNU with DA

“The ANC could be serving in the GNU with the DA, but will not give up local government ambitions.

“The GNU should also be seen as President Cyril Ramaphosa’s political strategy to weaken the DA’s power as part of government,” said Swana.

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