ANC will lose Gauteng in 2024, but it’s a risk to get into bed with EFF

If the ANC lost Gauteng in the 2024 national elections, the governing party would risk tarnishing its reputation if it entered into an alliance with EFF, an analyst says.

Ramaphoria factor gone

Professor Susan Booysen said Gauteng was such a pivotal province in many ways being the country’s economic hub and that losing the province is never good for any party.

Booysen said the ANC’s loss of the big metros in the 2016 local government elections was a strong precursor for the party’s losses in subsequently elections.

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“The Ramaphoria factor has worn out, there is no redemption of the ANC at national election any more, in case of elections they always fell back on the Ramaphoria factor, but now they don’t have it anymore.

“Although they are trying to put a Mashatile factor, it is not going to work. The ANC loss of Gauteng is definitely on the table and the implications of that will be devastating to the ANC,” Booysen said.

The ANC previously lost power in the major metros, but often returned to the seat of power after forming coalitions with the EFF and other smaller parties.

ANC’s electoral fate

EFF leader Julius Malema once alluded how the ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile during the 2019 national election, initiated a talk with the EFF with a view to form a coalition in Gauteng if the ANC lost the province.

But when the ANC won in Gauteng, Mashatile did not have the courtesy to return to the EFF.

Recently the ANC wrested power from DA-led coalitions in Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg earlier, but lost the battle in Tshwane.

READ MORE: DA right to worry about ANC, EFF relationship ahead of 2024 polls

The ANC strategy, which had become a trend, was to support a candidate from the smallest minority party for the position of the mayor as a payback for that particular party agreeing to be part of the ANC-led alliance.

“While there is a possibility of the ruling party surviving at national level but there was no chance of it surviving the next election in Gauteng. We are sitting with that scenario of the ANC losing Gauteng and that will be a harsh reminder of the future electoral fate of the ANC,” Booysen added.

National quid pro quo

The expert said she doubted the EFF would go into a “solid and enduring alliance” with the ANC in Gauteng if that did not resonate with the governing party nationally as well.

“For any stability in the ANC-EFF alliance in Gauteng, it will be a national quid pro quo. This will affect the name and reputation of the ANC even further than it had been affected already.

“Here I am thinking of the political character of the EFF, we know that the EFF is a party that is growing but not growing fast enough to win an election whether at provincial or national level and at this stage not at municipal level either,” Booysen said.

The EFF was not strong nor growing fast enough to win and get into power on its own.

Instead the red berets were currently seeking short cut to power, and unlike other opposition parties, it was doing it a “definitive way because it is big enough to give the balance of power in coalitions”.

“The EFF likes this kind of a role. The EFF doesn’t,” Booysen said.

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