ANC will lose Gauteng and KZN at next year’s election – analyst

The days of an ANC-only national Cabinet or a Democratic Alliance-only (DA-only) provincial executive are going to be a thing of the past because 2024 is going to be the year of coalitions, says an expert.

Another expert said disgruntled voters could sink the ANC, that the ruling party could lose KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng – and its loss would take the party below 50%.

However, political analyst Sandile Swana said the ANC could see growth in the Western Cape, provided the Patriotic Alliance (PA) made good on its promise to align with the ANC in the DA-governed province.

He said Gayton McKenzie’s PA was a new factor to aid the ANC in gaining slight growth in the Western Cape – but it would not rise above the DA.

‘Most difficult’ elections

Swana and political analyst Susan Booysen agreed that the 2024 polls would be the most difficult for the ANC, which has failed voters in numerous areas of service delivery. Booysen said aggrieved voters were most likely to abandon the ANC this time around.

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These were people who voted on the basis of disgruntlement due to the ANC’s unfulfilled promises. However, the ruling party could be saved by irrational voters, who cast their ballots on a party line basis because they believed it had liberated them from apartheid. The party line voters would not abandon the ANC, even with its dismal record of service delivery.

It’s the imbalance of two strands of voters that would determine whether the ANC performed well or not in 2024.

Swana said the ruling party was likely to lose KZN and Gauteng, but could grow its support in the Western Cape, where the PA had promised to align with it.

“The ANC is at risk of losing KZN to the DA-IFP [Inkatha Freedom Party] alliance which is why [ANC secretary-general Fikile] Mbalula and company are there, to try and rescue the situation,” Swana said.

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He cited the recent figure showing that out of 12 by-elections held recently in the province, the ANC managed to win only four wards while the DA-IFP together claimed eight, “and “that is a danger for the ANC”.

PA should not be taken for granted

He cautioned the Western Cape needed careful scrutiny because the PA should not be taken for granted as a new influence in the province’s balance of forces.

“I think the ANC in the Western Cape is slowly coming back to life in an impressive manner. We cannot deny that the PA has an appeal to the coloured voters, and that is why it is able to influence matters in Gauteng. The coloured vote is its mainstay,” Swana said.

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It was clear the ANC wouldn’t win Gauteng.

“Just the two provinces, Gauteng and KZN, would guarantee the ANC would fall below 50% in the 2024 election. Further, the ANC is not going to win the urban votes. So we are likely to see coalitions there,” Swana said.

He said the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) strategy was not to be part of coalitions, but it needed power. It would bargain for positions of power in the 2024 elections as it was doing at local government level.

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“We are no longer going to see an ANC-only Cabinet. There is no ANC Cabinet, there is no DA Cabinet, that is gone, it’s a coalition Cabinet everywhere,” Swana said.

DA, ANC declining

The EFF, ActionSA and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) were growing while the DA and ANC were declining. The FF+ was growing at the DA’s expense, a trend that would continue because the DA was causing a mess everywhere.

“The DA are trying to be acceptable to the white right wing and they are not succeeding, but the FF+ is a solid right-wing party. At the same time, I expect the black liberation parties like ActionSA and Zongezo Zibi’s Rise Mzansi party to grow … at the expense of the DA,” Swana said.

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Swana put his neck on the line, predicting the ANC would still enjoy the largest cut of the vote, at least 40%.