ANC ultimatum forces DA to ‘leave or adapt’, analyst says

The DA finds itself with less and less room to manoeuvre, believes a political analyst.

Following an ANC National Working Committee (NWC) meeting on Monday, Secretary General Fikile Mbalula relayed his party’s displeasure at the “double-dealings” of their primary partner in the government of national unity (GNU).

Mbalula stated on Tuesday that the ANC would engage with parties in and out of the GNU to establish a fresh working relationship as they felt the DA’s rejection of this year’s budget had become oppositional.

DA still committed to GNU

Friction over last week’s fiscal framework vote forced a temporary realignment of allegiances which has opened the door for a re-evaluation.

“What we have agreed to do is reset the button to ensure that the GNU going forward is governed by rules, not just the statement of intent,” Mbalula said.

However, the DA is standing firm, with national spokesperson Willie Aucamp reiterating that the party’s motivation for joining the GNU was to turn South Africa’s economy around.  

He said the party’s Federal Executive would meet to discuss the way forward, but insisted the ANC needed to get used to the post-2024 election dynamics.  

“The ANC now needs to accept that they need to share power and collaborate on the development and delivery of growth reforms that will create jobs and secure our fiscal position into the future,” Aucamp told The Citizen.

VAT increase tensions

Mbalula hinted at opening the door for other parties but Aucamp pointed to the established stipulation regarding GNU expansion.  

“In the statement of intent that was signed last year, it was clearly stated that parties within the GNU must approve of other parties coming in,” Aucamp said.

Since the fiscal framework vote, much of the DA’s ire has been directed at ActionSA, and Aucamp was certain Athol Trollip’s team had overplayed their hand.

“Either they blatantly lied to the people or they were not told the truth by the ANC,” he said.

‘Leave or adapt’

Political analyst Andre Duvenage believed the ANC was applying stern political pressure on their long-time rivals.

“A good strategy is when you don’t give your opponent the room to operate and I think what is happening here is that the ANC is closing the room on the DA,” Duvenage told The Citizen.

“That is to say to the DA, you must either follow our leadership or you must opt out. Clearly the ANC does not want to fire the DA but I think there is pressure on the DA to leave on their own,” he added.

Mbalula’s mention of the statement of intent was a signal that the ANC was going to leverage the numbers seen during the vote in parliament last week, the analyst predicts.

“[The ANC] want formal rules and the DA, as with all other parties, will need to follow the rules and the rules will be under the guidance and the supervision of the ANC,” Duvenage explained.

“This is a difficult scenario for the DA to deal with, and I think there is indirect pressure for them to either leave or adapt to what the ANC wants to achieve in the seventh administration.

“If not, the ANC will realign themselves with other parties and achieve a majority the other way,” he added.

Presidential implications

The tug-of-war also has implications for President Cyril Ramaphosa, who Duvenage said was under pressure from the business community to lead the GNU.

He warned that an anti-Ramaphosa faction was looking to scupper the GNU, while an international trade circus was compounding domestic issues.

To solve the deadlock, he suggested a broader dialogue between all parties to formulate a coherent way to address fresh global economic challenges.

“There is huge economic and financial pressure on Ramaphosa to keep the GNU going, but there is also a rebellion within his own party, and he needs to do a balancing act,” said Duvenage.

Duvenhage said the best case for SA is still a GNU, but a unified government without the DA or the Freedom Front Plus could not legitimately carry that title.

“We are basically in a scenario that can give us a lot of problems in the foreseeable future, so this is a very difficult political environment to navigate, not only within the GNU. Ramaphosa needs to balance a lot of things simultaneously,” Duvenage concluded.

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