ANC will remain divided after the policy conference – analysts

Hopes for a united African National Congress (ANC) to emerge from this weekend’s policy conference will not come to fruition, according to political analyst Andre Duvenhage.

Speaking to The Citizen on Saturday, Duvenhage said despite the ANC’s internal factional battles continuing unabated, even during this weekend’s conference, party leader Cyril Ramaphosa will still have the upper hand over the so-called Radical Economic Transformation (RET) grouping aligned to Jacob Zuma and Ace Magashule.

Step-aside rule

The RET faction made it clear in recent times that they will push strongly against the ANC’s step-aside rule. They say the rule, which states any member implicated in criminal activity should step aside, should be scrapped in its entirety.

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The RET faction has already suffered a number of casualties because of the step-aside rule. The likes of ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule and former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede remain suspended. Their allies say their prolonged suspension is just another way of neutralising them.

RET faction

While Duvenhage believes that the RET faction will not take the pressure exerted on them lying facing down, Ramaphosa might also hit back.

“However I think the strong point for Ramaphosa is that he has control of the National Working Committee (NWC) and the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ANC and he can also implement the findings of the Zondo Commission and basically in a way, decide who are the culprits and who can get amnesty.

“There is clearly also a very well orchestrated and planned onslaught on Ramaphosa as an individual, on his aspirations and on his current position,” he said.

In his opening address at the policy conference in Nasrec, Johannesburg, on Friday, Ramaphosa steered clear of the party infighting, saying they would demonstrate to naysayers that the ANC is able to “build and find consensus” on policy issues, despite the differences of opinion and divisions in the governing party.

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Duvenhage stressed it will be no easy to get consensus from delegates during the conference, particularly around the step-aside rule, adding that we are likely to get an indication of the mood as a measure of what will likely happen at the ANC’s national elective conference in December.

Ramaphosa’s dilemma

Another analyst, Prof. Dirk Kotze, is of the view that it is unrealistic to think that the policy conference will change everything that has been happening in the ANC.

“First of all, there isn’t enough time to deal with all the matters and the conference is not going to focus on all the specific issues… its a preparatory conference for the national conference, so its very much about discussions and coming to a point where they will formulate a position that they will take to the national conference,” said Kotze.

The dilemma facing Ramaphosa, according to Kotze, is that he is in the process of trying to reform the ANC, which benefits some and negatively affects others, especially those who are causing problems for the governing party.

“Its inevitable that this process is not going to necessarily unite the ANC but can reinvigorate the ANC, to some extent renew it, but that will take quite some time,” he said.