ANC regains momentum in key by-election victories

Experts and the ANC have noted the upwards trend in ANC electoral performance in several by-elections and believe the party is turning the corner since its devastating May electoral drop that robbed it of a parliamentary majority.

Since a series of by-elections held last month, the ANC has been on a winning streak, beginning with massive gains in 12 by-elections held in Thabazimbi local municipality in Limpopo.

The latest was in Bushbuckridge’s ward 24 last week that saw ANC councillor Smash Amos Matsane elected, beating an EFF candidate with a wide margin.

ANC councillor Matsane elected

It retained the seat it won in the 2021 municipal elections, with 74.19% of the total votes cast, compared with 62.10% in the 2021 municipal elections.

Voter turnout was 49.44%.

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Responding to the positive outcomes, ANC Mpumalanga provincial secretary Muzi Chirwa said the party was “deeply humbled by the overwhelming confidence the people of ward 24 displayed towards the ANC and its candidate.

He said the results demonstrated a 12% increase of support for the ANC since the 2021 local government elections.

“This is not only a vote of confidence in the ANC’s ability to govern, but also on the transparent and credible processes of the ANC to elect public representatives, which is rooted in its desire to be a parliament of the people.

‘Not only a vote of confidence in ANC ability to govern’

“We are also encouraged by the fact that these results demonstrate that the ANC has started to regain ground lost to opposition parties in the previous local government and general elections,” Chirwa said.

Political analyst Goodenough Mashego said the percentages could be misleading as many voters may have stayed away because their parties did not participate in the polls.

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He cited Bushbuckridge, where the ANC and the EFF contested while others stayed away.

Election analyst Wayne Sussman said the good performance was an advantage for the ANC.

He highlighted a favourable outcome for the ANC at Elias Motsoaledi in Limpopo in last month’s by-election at 71%, up from 37% in 2021.

Favourable outcome

At Msunduzi in KwaZulu-Natal it went up to 51% from 39% and a great performance at Hantam in the Northern Cape.

It’s noteworthy that in the Northern Cape by-elections last month, ANC’s Gerrit Laban won a seat previously held by the DA in 2021 with 45.68% compared with 34.53% in 2021. Voter turnout was 48.27%.

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In the by-elections at Bushbuckridge, the party returned strongly with 74%, moving from 62% previously, retaining Ward 24. It took all but one of the seven wards.