ANC must ‘wake up’ soon or face election failure

With the 2024 general election closing in and the emergence of new political parties, the governing ANC may find itself in political turmoil if it does not wake up.

An Institut Public de Sondage d’Opinion Secteur (Ipsos) poll in August last year predicted the party would fail to acquire more than 50% votes needed to win the 2024 general election – but it remained to be seen if the ANC could turn this around.

The multinational market research organisation did a national study from 14 May to 3 July 2022, in the home languages of 3 600 randomly selected South Africans 15 years and older – and it revealed that the results of party support could be below 50% if the government did not get an urgent grip on the situation.

ANC’s most significant elections

Prof Sethulego Matebesi, University of the Free State political analyst, said the ANC would, as usual, only stir a few months before the elections.

“I am sure behind the scenes, they are already working on strategies to counter what is said to be the most significant elections.”

ALSO READ: ‘Apologist to racism’: Mbalula says ANC will work with DA if party had no choice

According to Matebesi, the 2024 elections had correctly been identified as a crossroad for the ANC in terms of electoral support. He said there was, however, a possibility the ANC could acquire around the low 50s.

“It could be around 50.1%, but there was also around 48% or 49%.”

Matebesi said with all the “noise” everyone made, including commentators, the opposition and the small new parties, even if the ANC received below 50% , they would still be the party which would determine the composition of the National Assembly.

“They will only have one to two parties to convince, while it will be very difficult even with the DA’s so-called ‘ANC/EFF moon shot’ pact.”

ALSO READ: ANC will lose Gauteng in 2024, but it’s a risk to get into bed with EFF

The rise of new political parties would not take away voters from the ANC, but rather supporters who tried to align themselves with their parties.

“We should look at the source and the origin of these parties. New entrants will just weaken the opposition by confusing voters,” he said.

Three scenarios

Another study, done by the Inclusive Society Institute along with Ipsos in November 2022, found should an election be held “tomorrow”, it was unlikely that the opposition would be able to cobble a “cohesive coalition together to form a government at the national level” – and currently no coalition could be ushered in without the support of the EFF.

The GovDem poll showed:

• In a high voter turnout scenario, the combined opposition excluding the ANC is 49.41% (36.54%, excluding the EFF);
• In a medium voter turnout scenario, it is 50.08% (37.36%, excluding the EFF); and
• In a low voter turnout, it is 49.71% (36.36%. excluding the EFF).

Political analyst André Duvenhage said it was not whether the ANC would win, but the manner in which it would win.

ALSO READ: South Africa votes in 2024: Could a coalition between ANC and EFF run the country?

Duvenhage said the ANC would win either with a short absolute majority, which was just over 50%, or they would be found around 40% but would have to establish coalitions.

“I am expecting coalitions on a provincial level but I think on a national level the ANC would be able to work at least with coalitions to establish the authority.”

Duvenhage said there were a number of surveys done where some saw the support of the ANC as low as 37%, but others higher than 50%.

Coalition politics

“But the fact of the matter is the ANC did nothing to change their perception. Many voters, especially black voters, saw the ANC as their own and before voting for other parties, would rather go into apathy or just stay away, which already has a negative impact on the ANC,” he said.

“They can get the setback with the national elections but I think they will be able to recover in terms of coalition politics.”

ALSO READ: ANC working to achieve ‘an overwhelming victory’ in the next elections – Ramaphosa

Duvenhage said in terms of new parties, there were signs over 200 parties may compete in the national and provincial elections, but “in the electorate process they end up with about 10 parties in parliament.

“Basically three or four have influence on the process. The main being the ANC and the DA dominant – and I believe this will be the case in next year’s elections,” Duvenhage said.

– lungas@citizen.co.za