‘Race is a factor’ – ANC ‘missing the point’ on Western Cape voting patterns

As the Western Cape ANC gears up for its conference that was delayed for years, the lack of movement from the party’s Luthuli House headquarters signalled no interest for the province that’s unable to rise against the Democratic Alliance (DA).

So indifferent is the ANC that while addressing the media yesterday detailing the national working committee outcomes, secretary-general Fikile Mbalula did not mention the conference, an indication that the Western Cape is the least of ANC concerns.

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Mbalula only spoke about the upcoming ANC league conferences – ANC Youth League at the end of the month and the ANC Women’s League and veterans’ league, both sitting next month.

At least 700 delegates are expected to descend on the Cape Town International Convention Centre from today until Sunday to elect new leaders. The province is the smallest when it comes to ANC support and has failed to hold a conference for the past eight years due to the disorganised state of its branches.

Western Cape not on ANC’s plans

Political analyst Professor André Duvenhage said the DA-run Western Cape is at the bottom of the ANC’s plans.

“We know that in terms of ANC party priorities and strategies, the Western Cape is probably at number nine on the provinces’ list, it is definitely not a priority,” he said.

“The province is falling apart for the ANC. Western Cape is the best-governed province and there are no inroads the ANC can make in terms of increasing support.”

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Duvenhage said the governing party is facing a very difficult election next year and is seized with many other problems that don’t include helping the coastal province.

“There are court cases against the ANC – the Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane’s court challenge of the SIU’s [Special Investigating Unit] work, the cadre deployment case launched by the DA and the now expelled Ace Magashule, who is seemingly not going to retire quietly back to the Free State,” he said.

“So, the party is very busy trying to plug these holes and Western Cape seems not to be featuring anywhere in its plans.”

In the conference discussion documents released yesterday, the province argues that the Western Cape voter has no loyalty to any political party. Despite the dominance of debates around winning the Western Cape’s coloured vote, the ANC said race did not influence voting in the province.

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“Race will always be a factor in Western Cape politics but it does not seem to play a decisive role in voter behaviour, given that almost all political parties have governed this province,” said the party.

“Western Cape ANC must be directly interested in who is elected at national level and whether that person is trusted by a Western Cape voter.”

‘Missing the point’

But Duvenhage said the province was reading it all wrong because race and voting were inseparable in South Africa.

“They are missing the point. Race is a factor, people vote on racial lines. Their decline is due to poor management and internal conflict. It has cost them support and unlike in other provinces, the DA is growing and waiting in the wings,” he said.

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Leading the chair race is former MEC under the ANC provincial government, Cameron Dugmore, and ANC MP Qubudile Dyantyi. Dyantyi is currently the chair of the parliamentary committee that is probing suspended public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane’s fitness to hold office.

– getrudem@citizen.co.za