#ANC55: Ramaphosa to remain at helm

Despite the glitches – slow accreditation of delegates and a much-delayed start of the ANC’s 55th national elective conference – indications are that President Cyril Ramaphosa is on Saturday set to be voted party leader on the second day of the watershed gathering being held at Nasrec, south of Johannesburg.

With voting results for the ANC top six officials – president, deputy president, national chair, secretary-general, deputy secretary-general and treasurer-general – expected to be announced late in the evening, political analysts Prof Piet Croucamp of North West University, described Ramaphosa’s possible victory as “a given”, while University of Johannesburg’s Dr David Monyae cautioned about “surprises from the floor”.

Mkhize to be deputy president?

Croucamp said Ramaphosa’s imminent win in the ANC presidential race was becoming quite clear. “I have also picked up that there are negotiations going on for the likelihood of Dr Zweli Mkhize becoming deputy president – with such a nomination expected to come from the floor, if he does not make it as president.

“If that happens, that will resolve the KwaZulu-Natal question – balancing the outcome and unifying the ANC. In the days preceding the conference, it was expected that there would be a lot of horse-trading and it would come as no surprise if Mkhize features in the race for deputy,” said Croucamp.

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With several delegates still unaccredited by Thursday, he said it was expected that the conference would start late.

“I think the conference looks well-organised, except the slow start due to a delay in accrediting delegates – part of a role expected of acting secretary-general Paul Mashatile.”

Monyae said Ramaphosa could become president, but not until the end. “He is still popular at national level, but chances of him being recalled at some stage are very high,” he said.

Dark horses could emerge

On his impressions of the elective conference, Monyae said: “There may be heated debates in the beginning, but we’re likely to see few dynamics in the end – ending peacefully in the overall.

“For me, the surprises are likely to come from the floor. You might see some dark horses due to behind-the-scene strategies. The other surprise might be due to provinces that are divided along factional lines.”

He said while the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal were big provinces, numbers might not easily tally. “Divisions may allow dark horses to have an upper hand, with some positions being taken by people we never expected.

“Last-minute discussions and what happened in parliament in terms of the voting might have had an impact on the outcome.

“Delegates are easy to manage a week or night before voting. If numbers are spread out among big figures, it allows for smaller figures to become kingmakers.”

The focus of the conference was “on individuals and there is lack of analysis on what it means for the party, with the ANC currently in big trouble because of infighting, coupled with the state of the domestic economy, global issues, corruption and mismanagement of state resources”, Monyae added.

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He linked the hiccups affecting an early start of the gathering to accreditation and security issues, “given the tense environment in which the conference is taking place – in the aftermath of ANC MPs having voted on the Phala Phala report”.

“One can understand what lies behind the delay in the conference,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ramaphosa detractors, such as Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who voted with the opposition in adopting the parliamentary Section 89 independent panel report, could face party sanction, despite ANC national spokesperson Pule Mabe having assured a media briefing on Saturday the matter would be deferred to a newly-elected national executive committee.

Marked by an attempted disruption of Ramaphosa’s speech by KwaZulu-Natal delegates – amid the arrival of former president Jacob Zuma – suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, was not allowed to enter the conference precinct.

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