The ANC will not win a majority and we will see more alliances at 2024 elections

South Africa’s political parties are going into next year’s elections unsure about what the future holds for them as far as political realignment is concerned.

But there are several options on the table. New political alliances could emerge as contestations will be based on opportunism and won on thin margins.

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But an expert says one thing is certain – the ANC will not win with an outright majority. Various coalition scenarios will emerge, especially in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng. And they will be characterised by unprecedented horse-trading among parties before and after the elections.

Political analyst Sandile Swana says the political realignment for the elections, likely to take place between May and August, is going to be tricky.

“It will be tricky in the sense that the Democratic Alliance [DA] has aligned itself with the [MultiParty Charter] and the moonshot pact until the election results come out.

Looking for partners

“This means that if the results come out in a particular way, the DA will be looking for other partners. On the other hand, it is becoming clear with the ANC that you have two factions at a minimum… you might even have a third one. At a minimum you have the pro-DA faction and the pro-EFF faction,” Swana said.

Then there are those who fantasise that the ANC can rally its forces and win. The ideas of this group, which includes ANC deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane and former President Jacob Zuma, are stillborn because the ANC is bound to lose its majority in 2024.

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“The ANC is not going to get the 50% plus one majority, it is unlikely, very unlikely,” Swana said. He said the most likely partners for the ANC was the EFF on one hand and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) in KZN on the other.

The IFP in KZN is big – almost double the size of the DA. The province could have a coalition between the IFP and the DA, the IFP and the EFF, or the EFF and the ANC.

“So the most important thing we have to consider is that the majority of the ANC is coming to an end. The second consideration is that it is quite likely that the EFF will become a kingmaker or a major factor in determining the political direction of South Africa.

The black majority agenda

“Even if it is not in a coalition, it will definitely be able to move the agenda of the black majority and agitate for that agenda in parliament,” Swana said.

An alliance between the DA and the ANC would be difficult because the conflict in that alliance would become a norm. They would bicker over various issues such as Israel, the pro-US stance of the DA and the ANC’s “appetite for corruption”.

The ANC has realised it’s in trouble in the new battleground of KZN, which is the reason it brought back Zuma to campaign for it in the province. In so doing, the party’s provincial leadership is trying to counter the IFP’s influence, which it has been unable to do for many years.

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But the ANC is wasting its time as the IFP had gained momentum in the province, he said. The only option for the ANC in KZN was to strengthen its alliance with the EFF and the IFP if possible, otherwise it risked losing the province to an IFP-DA coalition.

Swana said that in Gauteng, another battleground, the ANC would have to heed the call by its provincial chair, Panyaza Lesufi, to prepare to forge an alliance with Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance and the EFF if it wanted to retain the province.

“So to me, that is where the agenda is,” Swana said.