Between a rock and a hard place: ANC-EFF partnership ‘would create tension’ within ANC

The ANC is hoping for a clear majority at next year’s election so it can go it alone and not have to offer up the political “pound of flesh” to either the Democratic Alliance (DA) or the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) if it is forced to share power, say political experts.

The ANC is divided between those who supported a coalition with the EFF and those who wanted to partner up with the DA.

ALSO READ: Joburg’s new ‘caretaker’ mayor will last if he doesn’t threaten ANC-EFF’s interests

Cooperation with the DA wouldn’t come as a surprise to the “Thatcherites” within the ANC, who would prefer the DA to Julius Malema’s unbridled radicalism.

EFF policies ‘too radical’ for ANC

Political analyst Daniel Silke said many in the ANC would try to avoid partnering with the EFF because its policies were seen as too radical, and the red berets were demanding too much from a coalition partnership. The ANC was unlikely to bow to its pressure.

Therefore, should the ANC win a clear majority, it would prefer to go it alone because either the DA or EFF would demand their “pound of flesh” if it fell short at the polls.

ALSO READ: Will ANC-EFF coalition fast-track Malema’s ambitions to be head of state in 2029?

Political analyst Sandile Swana said an influential section of the ruling party, comprising mainly the old guard, was opposed to a coalition with the EFF because they believed its radical policies were not good and they rather go for the DA because they preferred Western liberal democracy.

The same group would rather have the DA as a coalition partner to tap into and benefit from its good governance expertise to compensate for ANC’s shortcomings in running the state – and in general – to recoup the lost white skills and help in the country’s economic and infrastructural development.

DA’s political DNA

Swana said a coalition between the ANC and the DA would take the ANC straight into a liberal democracy, which formed part of the DA’s political DNA.

He said the Thatcheresque liberal democracy was, to a certain extent, espoused by former President Thabo Mbeki, but it lost its lustre when Jacob Zuma took over and adopted a stance that wobbled between the left and the right.

ALSO READ: ANC is going to need Malema’s EFF

Silke said the ANC was careful not to paint itself into a corner about its likely coalition partners, but was rather keeping the door open for any eventuality. At the same time, it did not want to be seen to be courting the EFF, lest it be labelled as part of a future radical coalition.

Rather, the ANC appeared to prefer to interact with a broad spectrum of political parties, including the DA.

“Remember, the DA would gain considerable political capital if ANC and EFF were going in … with a view to coalition discussion after the election.

“The DA would be able to say clearly to the voters, ‘look, a vote for the ANC is a vote for the EFF’, which would undermine a fragile ANC,” Silke said.

ALSO READ: South Africa votes in 2024: Could a coalition between ANC and EFF run the country?

“Politically, the ANC should not side any more closely with anyone or other political parties.”

The ruling party would be wary of going into a coalition with a party seen as radical and disruptive, and demanding too much in the coalition agreement.

Stumbling blocks for ANC

Silke said, should the ANC fall below 50% in the 2024 election, it would have to deal with the prospect of the DA or the EFF as coalition partners and they would want some form of payback.

He cited the EFF’s “unpalatable policies” as those related to land, independence of the Reserve Bank and certain aspects of foreign policy, which would be major stumbling blocks for the ANC.

ALSO READ: Malema, Mbalula battle not personal but political

“I think an ANC-EFF partnership would create tremendous tension and stress within the ANC itself, so it’s not a simple matter that they would be natural bedfellows.

“Similarly, it would be quite difficult for the ANC to implement some aspects of the DA policy.”

However, if it did fall below 50%, it would look to “non-controversial parties, smaller players that wouldn’t rock [the boat], that are not ideologically that different from the ANC but middle-of-the-road parties” as possible coalition partners, said Silke.

Swana cited Centre for Development and Enterprise executive director Ann Bernstein’s recent statement that it would be better for South Africa to have a “moderate middle-of-the-road” alliance between the DA and the ANC.

ALSO READ: DA’s only aim is to feed its obsession against the ANC-EFF alliance

“The core of that … is neoliberal policies [which] were in any case adopted by the ANC when they abandoned the RDP [reconstruction and development programme] policy in favour of Gear [growth economic and redistribution] policy and were operating under Thabo Mbeki.

“So the Thatcher-kind of thinking is there in the ANC,” Swana said.

– ericn@citizen.co.za