ANC conference: Mabuyane victory a boost for Ramaphosa, ‘sign of things to come’

The clean sweep by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s right-hand man, Oscar Mabuyane, at the ANC (African National Congress) conference in the Eastern Cape was a boost for Ramaphosa’s campaign for the party’s leadership.

In addition, it could be a sign of things to come in other provinces, says a political expert.

Political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast predicted Mabuyane’s victory.

ANC conference outcome

Oscar Mabuyane clean sweep

The entire Mabuyane slate was elected at the party’s provincial conference in East London yesterday, ending three days of delays over the delegates’ credentials.

Breakfast was adamant that after the Eastern Cape elections, Ramaphosa stood a great chance to win at the ANC national conference in December as his position was strengthened.

The president is expected to be up against party national executive committee (NEC) members Lindiwe Sisulu and Dr Zweli Mkhize.

Both have presidential ambitions but they have yet to show their support on the ground.

What does this mean for Ramaphosa?

Breakfast said from now onwards, everything would fall into line for Ramaphosa, especially with his recent endorsements by Mpumalanga and Limpopo and his guaranteed support from Northern Cape.

“We know he is not going to win KwaZulu-Natal but he is going to win Limpopo, Western Cape, North West and he might win Gauteng,” he said.

The Free State was still unpredictable but suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule’s weakened influence in the province would be to Ramaphosa’s advantage.

Victory for Ramaphosa?

Both potential ANC candidates and opponents in the province, Mxolisi Dukwana and Thabo Manyoni, indicated their backing for Ramaphosa.

“This is a very important victory for Ramaphosa from a strategic level. It means Ramaphosa is on a good footing and stands a good chance to get a second term.

“My prediction is that Ramaphosa is going to win,” Breakfast said.

I’m glad you proved them wrong, Ramaphosa tells delegates at ANC conference

Besides, he has state machinery at his disposal and he has a good relationship with backers, who would fund his campaign, “because they know what Cyril’s victory means for them”.

RET’s lack of strategy

Breakfast identified the radical economic transformation (RET) grouping’s weaknesses as poor organisation and lack of strategy in their fight against Ramaphosa.

“His opponents must not be excited on the field, they should not be emotional, but they must think strategically and tactically.

“It’s no use shouting and calling your opponent names, that is not going to get you power,” Breakfast said.

While the RET faction remained strong with visible numbers on the ground, it lacked a fighting strategy.

For that, they wouldn’t catch up with the tactical and well-resourced Ramaphosa, who had gained momentum since Nasrec 2017.

Mkhwebane displays RET faction symptoms

His faction wasn’t strong but they were good at manoeuvring and strategising. Mabuyane returned with a large margin against his challenger, Babalo Madikizela.

ANC conference elections

The entire Mabuyane team were elected to the top five, with Mlungisi Mvoko as his deputy and provincial secretary Lulama Ngcukayitobi also re-elected.

Helen Sauls-August is the deputy secretary and Zolile Williams as provincial treasurer.

This kicked out all of Mabuyane’s opponents who were in the previous ANC provincial executive committee with him and his Cabinet.

Madikizela was MEC for public works while his slate fellow, Liziwe Tikana-Gxothiwe, served in the transport and roads portfolio.

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Madikizela indicated his intention to leave government, which meant he might announce his resignation from Mabuyane’s executive soon.

Madikizela a ‘Trojan horse’

Breakfast said Madikizela wasn’t a threat now or in future to Mabuyane. He lacked political maturity and content in his speeches.

Rather, the analyst argued, both RET Eastern Cape members Mlibo Qoboshiyane and Andile Lungisa were better off than Madikizela as they were baptised in the ANC political ideology from a young age.

“He was a Trojan horse, he was a smokescreen they used to test the waters. Madikizela sounds immature politically,” Breakfast said.

He said the contest opened an opportunity for Mabuyane to know who stood with him and who was against him and that could prompt a provincial Cabinet reshuffle.

“Mabuyane cannot trust Madikizela to be in his Cabinet anymore,” Breakfast said.