ANC conference could collapse – Here’s why

The Eastern Cape ANC provincial conference was heading for collapse late yesterday as members could not agree on the credentials for the meeting to proceed.

Delegates sang freedom songs inside and outside the East London International Convention Centre to while away time.

“This conference is not going to happen,” said one delegate, who preferred to remain anonymous.

An agreement could not be reached on the number of delegates and who qualified to vote. This after some branches were disqualified when their branch general meeting results were found to have been manipulated.

All these issues caused tension and shouting among delegates who demanded proper credentials to be presented.

A group of disgruntled members had approached the East London court to seek an interdict over the authenticity of the credentials. The court rejected the application.

ALSO READ: ANC Eastern Cape conference experiences disruptions over credentials

The conference outcomes were expected to determine whether President Cyril Ramaphosa had a good chance of winning a second term in December at the five-year ANC electoral conference.

It was to also serve to determine the strength of both Lindiwe Sisulu and Zweli Mkhize, who are expected to contest the ANC presidency.

Babalo Madikizela, who is aligned to disgraced former health minister Mkhize and Jacob Zuma’s right hand in the province, Mlibo Qoboshiyane, joined forces against Ramaphosa’s main backer Oscar Mabuyane, who is ANC provincial task team convenor.

The duo’s common mission is to defeat Mabuyane and derail Ramaphosa’s hope of a second term.

Madikizela is not only Mabuyane’s ally and homeboy in the former Transkei, he is also his provincial treasurer in the ANC and MEC for public works in his executive council.

Their political rivalry is still a mystery. Some still don’t take it seriously, perhaps until they see Madikizela replacing Mabuyane at the helm.

A source within the Madikizela camp said, “Qoboshiyane has moved to our side at last”. This meant the Zuma and Mkhize/Sisulu might unite against Ramaphosa.

The Mkhize group had been lobbying Qoboshiyane – the Eastern Cape provincial legislature speaker – but “it had been a difficult task” due to lack of a proper realignment between the Zuma faction and the Mkhize/Sisulu loose groupings.

The three sides, currently working as separate entities, were yet to plan whether they needed to come together.

Without the involvement of suspended ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule and Zuma, any negotiations between the three sides would be difficult.

The Zuma camp bragged about numbers but had been hindered by a glaring lack of a leader to champion their cause. This since Zuma and his ally Magashule were sidelined by the ANC.

Sisulu had been working day and night to lure the “orphaned faction” to her side but had been unable to convince them that she was better than their last hope, Magashule, whom they still expected to come back to contest Ramaphosa in December.

However, Magashule’s corruption and fraud case had not even fully begun after a series of court postponements, making his chances to enter the race slim.

Ramaphosa had been consolidating his campaign since the ANC January 8 Statement, including the launch of state izimbizo and the party’s Letsema campaign in some provinces.

Mkhize’s plan to contest the ANC polls is being questioned with allegations around the Digital Vibes multi-million rand graft matter still hanging over his head.

Some had raised the question of morality for him to stand for office before the matter was finalised by the ANC integrity commission.

ALSO READ: Mabuyane welcomes court ruling as race for ANC chair heats up at Eastern Cape conference

With Madikizela and Qoboshiyane on the same side, Mabuyane is faced with a formidable force to stay in power even if the conference is abandoned.

But his followers are adamant he would return, as their hashtag campaign stated #BuyaMabuyane [comeback Mabuyane].

Indeed, if Mabuyane returned, Ramaphosa’s support would be reinforced as he already had backing from Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Northern Cape.

If he loses, Mabuyane could be recalled as premier by rivals.

Already some were talking about Madikizela becoming the next premier as early as after the ANC policy conference in July.

“Madikizela must come, we want him as premier as of yesterday,” an ANC source linked to his side said.

The question is: can you count the eggs before they hatch?

– ericn@citizen.co.za