ANC coalition possibilities: A left, right or centre plan?

Could South Africa see a left, centre-left or far-left ANC-led coalition after the 29 May elections?

A leading political analyst yesterday predicted a far-left government after the polls, with a possibility of the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) Floyd Shivambu becoming finance minister should the ANC fail to muster an outright majority – but two other experts found that scenario unlikely.

The ruling party has declining electoral support, seen in the 2021 local government polls and evident in the loss of its majority in several metros, with the latest opinion polls forecasting the ANC will dip below 50%. And the party has found itself taking strain from the threat of a looming EFF-uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party coalition.

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ANC support has dwindled

Conceding that waning ANC support could weaken its hand during post-election coalition negotiations, independent political analyst Sandile Swana said that from 2011 to 2021, “the ANC in Ekurhuleni lost almost 40% of its electoral vote”.

“Given that the bulk of the population live in urban centres – three metros in Gauteng, a province where most of the ANC support has dwindled – the party is going to lose the province.

“The likely scenario, if the ANC gets a slim majority, is for the party to form a coalition with the ATM [African Transformation Movement], EFF, MK, possibly UDM [United Democratic Movement] and other social democratic or socialist parties which are left-leaning. This is a distinct possibility.

“The ANC is unfit to govern South Africa on its own, because when in power it manifests three primary characteristics – incompetence, non-performance and corruption,” Swana said.

Purpose of the coalition

“The purpose of the coalition is to minimise and neutralise incompetence, non-performance and corruption.” He said the EFF was “open to a coalition with the ANC, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) has ruled out working with the EFF”.

This, said Swana, was driven by “DA and ActionSA funders not wanting the EFF on board”.

“They would rather prefer the ANC of Cyril Ramaphosa – a party not within the reach of the DA and ActionSA,” said Swana. He said the EFF and MK coalition might agree that Shivambu should take over the finance portfolio.

“Many left-leaning economists, like Duma Gqubule and Lumkile Mondi, do not support Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, his monetary policies and the broader macro-economic policies of the ruling party. “They do not want the mind of the ANC in National Treasury – let alone the party’s austerity measures and cost-containment policies. They would want to remove the ANC from finance.”

University of South Africa political science Prof Dirk Kotze and political expert Melanie Verwoerd said Shivambu was “not a good choice for the finance minister position”. Kotze described the EFF’s push to be offered the finance portfolio as “highly ambitious and unrealistic”.

“This is one of the key portfolios, which the biggest party in the coalition would not give to smaller partners.

Giving finance position to EFF would make things worse

“Looking at its ideology and policy positions, giving the finance position to the EFF would make things worse than when former president Jacob Zuma appointed Des van Rooyen.

“The possibility of Shivambu getting that position is less than 1%,” said Kotze.

Verwoerd also doubted the ANC would accept Shivambu as minister of finance. Kotze said a future ANC coalition arrangement would depend on “how much percentage of the vote the party attains”.

“If the ANC garners votes in the high 40%, the party should be able to form a coalition with smaller parties – not including the EFF or MK,” Kotze said.

“If it receives 40% to 45%, it will be in a tricky situation, because smaller parties won’t be enough for the ANC to create the 50% plus 1%. Should that happen, the option available would be an ANCEFF coalition or with the DA – or what is referred to as a grand coalition, involving more than two parties.”

“The bottom-line is that the ANC and EFF have to a large extent separated, with there being little common ground between the two. In looking at the ANC and MK, the antagonism is so deep-seated at the moment it is the last option for the ANC,” Kotze said.

Said Verwoerd: “There is no chance that MK and EFF can get a lot – even if they join up to form a coalition. The best they would get is about 25%. Coalition partnerships with the ANC would depend on how many votes the party gets. If pushed into a corner, the ANC would prefer the DA above the EFF.”

– brians@citizen.co.za

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