ANC and DA could do worse than they predict

While President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Democratic Alliance (DA) have both been crowing over the past few days about their predicted success in the coming election, the reality, according to experts and a new opinion poll, is that they could both end up losing share at the ballot box.

Visiting Mamelodi last weekend, Ramaphosa said he could “smell victory”, and the ANC would get more than 50% of the vote in Gauteng.

The DA, on the other hand, said it had surpassed the ANC in collecting voter registrations over the last Electoral Commission voter registration weekend.

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However, political analysts said the ruling party could lose its parliamentary majority nationally because of its poor prospects in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.

Others said the DA was no longer a certainty, even in provinces where it dominated like the Western Cape, and that is mainly because it is losing Muslim voters because of its stand on the war in Gaza.

Professor Dirk Kotzé, a political scientist from the University of South Africa, said the ANC would be lucky to get 50% in Gauteng.

It is believed Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape are likely to be the deciding factors in the ANC’s fate nationally.

Elections analyst Wayne Sussman said the DA was not as assured of a victory in the Western Cape as it was in 2014 and 2109.

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“The DA’s main challenge in the Western Cape will be parties like the Patriotic Alliance and the National Coloured Congress,” he said.

“These are parties which seemed energised around the registration campaign, so I do think it’s not just the ANC that is seeing a decline; it’s the DA as well.”

According to a recent poll carried out on behalf of Roger Jardine’s new organisation, Change Starts Now, all major parties are seeing a dramatic decline in electoral support.

The national poll of voter intentions ahead of the 2024 elections interviewed 9 000 people and was conducted by David Everatt, a professor of urban governance at the Wits School of Governance.

It painted an interesting picture, revealing the decline of the ANC seemed unstoppable, down to as low as 39% of the national vote, but where “no obvious successor has emerged, the DA and EFF [Economic Freedom Fighters] each attract only around a fifth or sixth of voters”.

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The survey showed the DA had lost its majority status in the Western Cape while in five provinces, the ANC remained large enough to dictate coalition terms.

He cited the phenomenon where people would say one thing to pollsters and another at the ballot box. “I think that might be the case for the DA in the Western Cape, especially because we haven’t seen many by-elections in urban areas in the City of Cape Town, where most voters are,” he added.

“I also think the DA will lose some support amongst Muslim voters, but we don’t know where these voters will necessarily go.”

“People vote on a variety of issues, so they might still end up voting for the DA. They vote about the economy, opportunities for their kids, job opportunities, economic growth, crime … but I do think the DA will be stretching amongst the Muslim voters.”

Sociologist Prof Karl von Holdt previously told The Citizen that apart from policies, citizens were expressing a strong desire for new political alternatives, and parties that can break away from the traditional political mould.

“Voter attitudes indicate a strong desire [for] alternatives in quantities reminiscent of the levels observed more than 30 years ago,” Holdt said.

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Independent analyst, Goodenough Mashego said the ANC would fall below 50% in Gauteng and would be forced to cobble together a coalition government. He pointed to the ANC’s fluctuating results in local government elections in the metros of Joburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni.

The party would face not just the DA but also new and significant players like the ActionSA and Songezo Zibi’s Rise Mzansi.

According to Mashego, Rise Mzansi “may look like a minion”, but it should not be underestimated. It represented an important constituency and had a leader who was well known in the business sector and the media.

“Songezo Zibi is a man with virtues and enjoys widespread respect and that is important for a leader to attract votes. They [ANC] are not going only to look at the DA but at Rise Mzansi as well in Gauteng,” Mashego said.