Analysts say Trump’s bid to weaken Brics will fail as US influence declines

President Donald Trump’s wish to see Brics dead is the last kick of a dying horse as it is, instead, the US empire that is dying and being replaced by Brics, according to an analyst .

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana added that Trump was attempting to manipulate certain Brics countries, like Russia and India, by winning them over, while isolating others, such as South Africa and China.

This strategy, reminiscent of divide and rule tactics, was likely to fail.

Trump’s efforts to persuade India to collaborate with the US by engaging in talks and signing agreements with Prime Minister Narendra Modi would ultimately be fruitless, said Swana.

India is already selling oil to various nations such as China, other countries in Asia and Europe.

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Furthermore, India is interested in participating in Brics’ de-dollarisation efforts, as the dollar poses significant exchange rate challenges for New Delhi.

“The US is an empire that has reached its peak. The declining US empire has a replacement, which is primarily China and, secondarily, Brics.

“When Trump announces that Brics is dead, that is not a fact, but he wants to convince the Americans that he can do something about Brics,” Swana said.

Trump’s tactics

Political economy analyst Daniel Silke said Trump’s claim that Brics was dead was not true, but he might have been referring to the future of the de-dollarisation of Brics trade.

He said Trump’s statement was part of his tactics of intimidation.

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But the US president is concerned about the Brics’ trade de-dollarisation plan, which he wants to stop by pulling certain Brics member states out of it.

Swana said Trump was trying to entice Russia with a peace deal with Ukraine, but if that is meant to divide Brics, it is not going to work.

He said Russia would never enter a system that favoured the US and would rather operate within a China-led economic or financial system.

Trump’s isolation of Europe and Brics nations would push Europe closer to China in terms of trade, while Asian nations and Europe were interested in buying cheap Indian oil.

Stronger relations

Silke said instead of being divided, the Brics countries were going to forge even stronger trade relations with one another and become more reliant on one another.

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“The irony is that some of Washington’s policies could drive these Brics nations even closer given China’s strategic player role with other countries.”

Swana said new alliances would be forged. Some European countries, such as Germany, want to start trade with Russia despite the US-led embargo against the Kremlin over its military operation in Ukraine.

A new oil pipeline being constructed between Russia and China that would also feed Asian countries would boost trade within Brics and stop countries from being too dependent on the US for energy, Silke said.

Europe has resolved that Trump cannot be trusted, hence it supported South Africa as the G20 host while US was trying to isolate SA.

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New opportunities

With or without US participation at the G20 summit, it would open up new investment and trade opportunities for SA.

Silke said if India, a key member of Brics, were to leave the alliance, it would severely harm Brics, which may then die.

But while it was unclear whether Trump had tried to persuade the Indian prime minister to leave Brics or influence its policy in a particular way, it was significant that Modi was on good terms with both China and the US.

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