Analysts dissect how much Zuma’s expulsion will hurt the ANC

Although hit by successive degrees of member dissent since its founding in 1912 as the country’s liberation movement, never before has the ANC had to deal with a breakaway of the magnitude of its expelled former president Jacob Zuma – a factor threatening to weaken the existence of the party, according to analysts.

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Dissenting voices within the ranks of the ANC – sometimes brutally suppressed when the party was in exile – have led to the formation of several splinter groups, which have included:

• An Africanist group, led by Robert Sobukwe, that broke away from the ANC in 1959, calling itself the PAC. This group objected to the ANC’s statement that “the land belongs to all who live in it – both white and black”.

• The watershed ANC Morogoro conference of 1969, where dissidents – the “group of eight” led by Tennyson Makiwane – staged a revolt against the inclusion of non-Africans in positions of leadership.

• An atmosphere of ANC paranoia in exile, which was fuelled by the infiltration in its training camps by South African agents, leading to the torture, execution and killings of several ANC members at its detention camps in Angola. These included Quattro and Nova Catengue.

• The UDM’s formation in 1997, following its founding leader General Bantu Holomisa’s expulsion from the ANC for bringing the party into disrepute.

• The formation of Congress of the People by former members of the ANC Mosiuoa Lekota, Mbhazima Shilowa and Mluleki George.

• Founding of the EFF in 2013 by expelled former ANC Youth League president Julius Malema.

Last one hurt the ANC most

Political analysts Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast and Dr Sam Koma conceded that the move by the former ANC president in forming the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, which has led to his expulsion and was a major factor in the ANC losing a huge number of votes in the general elections, was to destroy the ruling party.

“In the 2024 general elections, Zuma’s MK party proved to be a big factor, having led to the ANC vote dropping in a big way – from 57% to 40%.

“It has been a massive blow for the ANC because of Zuma’s breakaway party. Zuma is now planning to establish a trade union federation – on a mission to destroy what is left of the ANC.

“His choice of Tony Yengeni as his representative in the disciplinary hearing tells you that he wants to destroy the ANC on the outside and inside – to punish the party so that it goes back to its roots,” said Breakfast.

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While throughout history the ANC “has had ups and downs, which have seen its members speaking out, some leaving to form new parties”, there was a difference between past and present factional battles.

“The difference between the ANC of 1959, which led to the formation of the PAC and the Morogoro conference of 1969, compared to the current ANC is that the past contradictions were ideologically inspired.

“Today, the vision is not about ideology. The Zuma tensions are not about the ideological differences within the ANC, but more about capturing the party to access resources,” added Breakfast.

Zuma only aims to grow

Koma said: “Zuma is determined to see the extinction of the ANC from the political scene.

“He is emboldened by the outcome of the 2024 general elections. He is now preparing the ground for the 2026 local government polls – to upset the ANC.

“That is the reason his party is now mobilising for the formation of a trade union federation. He’s got a medium- to long-term political strategy to nail the ANC.”

Policy analyst Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said: “They behave like playground bullies, using factions and slates to get rid of opponents and the limitations of the party system to enforce discipline internally and externally.

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“All this is fast, amounting to an abusive relationship in which democratic centralism and patronage give members no realistic alternative party to leave for, or through which to express their dissent. An alternative alliance party on the ballot paper is the route to a progressive future.

“But, for the factional ANC machine, that would mean sacrificing its domineering power, with most of its behaviour now originating in this paranoid, top-down way of political thinking.”