Tshwane: Ousting of mayor can become trend in other metros – experts

With Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA having emerged as a kingmaker, leading to the ousting of the Tshwane mayor Cilliers Brink, the trend is likely to spill over in other metros, analysts say.

The ANC-ActionSA-EFF axis has two weeks to establish a new government in Tshwane, after a no-confidence vote removed Brink.

Tshane incident could be first

Political analyst Dr Sam Koma said the Tshwane development could be replicated in the Gauteng metros Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni.

Political stability in metros was uncertain as the landscape was “shifting, especially as the parties are fearing each other in the run-up to the 2026 local government elections”.

Maintaining the ousting of Brink was “not yet over”, University of Johannesburg local government expert Prof Theo Venter said “there are a lot of things that can develop in the coming two weeks”.

“Although we are dealing with a local government matter, it impacts on provincial and national relationships in the government of national unity,” Venter said.

“The ANC may have an interesting position in Gauteng, with premier Panyaza Lesufi seemingly calling the shots.

“But the ANC should remember it is extremely vulnerable, relying on IFP and DA support in KwaZulu-Natal.

“Looking at that vulnerability in a larger context, we may have an interesting outcome in Tshwane in two weeks.

“The weakest link is the government of national unity’s (GNU) philosophy not filtering through to local government,” Venter said.

“With 2026 in mind, the Gauteng ANC leadership is playing the game, driven by a thinking on who is going to control the ANC after the party’s national conference in 2027,” said Venter.

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Experts reckon service delivery will be affected

With less than 40 of the 257 local government performing to maximum level, experts said instability would affect service delivery.

Policy analyst Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi described stability as “scary”.

“When a municipality has had years of political and economic chaos, as Tshwane has, who does not want life to be more stable,” asked Nyembezi.

“Things taken for granted during calmer times become something voters yearn for, which ambitious politicians promise each time they justify sponsoring a vote of no confidence.

“After this latest vote, there may be a sense for many voters of waking up from a long nightmare.

“The shocks and disasters in municipalities across the province – since the last local government elections – have been relentless,” said Nyembezi.

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Instability could reign in new coalition

“Citizens should not have any illusion about the nature of the coalition offered by the ANC.

“Some political parties may like stability, some of the time.

“However, factional politics thrive in a system with instability at its heart – the constant churn of political loyalties, the starkly diverging outcomes of promoting personal interests above the public good.

“We could be facing yet another creation of winners and losers – the roller-coaster of boom-andbust control of the public purse for personal gain,” said Nyembezi.

“When politicians say they want a stable government, what they leave unsaid is that they want it to act as a political and social buffer, so that they can carry on chasing their destabilising but profitable goals.

“When their party’s political strategies fail on a dangerous scale, they expect the citizens to bail them out by tolerating a string of no-confidence votes,” said Nyembezi.

“Even if the ANC manages to establish itself properly again in Tshwane, the pursuit of stability could still become a trap in other municipalities and the provincial government.”

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