Can the ANC take over Tshwane? Here’s what the numbers say

Panyaza Lesufi is on a mission to reinvigorate the ANC’s position provincially and nationally, with his eye now on replacing the Tshwane mayor.

The ANC in Gauteng have just wrestled back control of the City of Johannesburg council, and they have threatened to do the same in the capital.

But do they have the numbers to do so?

ActionSA hold swing votes

The ANC have the most seats in the Tshwane council with 75, followed by the DA with 69.

The EFF, ActionSA and VF Plus have the next biggest blocks with 23, 19 and 17 seats, respectively.

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ActionSA and VF Plus’ support of the DA since 2021 has kept Cilliers Brink in the mayoral position and a defection from either would swing matters.

Several weeks ago, ActionSA’s Tshwane caucus leader Jackie Mathabathe stated that the party was concerned about service delivery being affected by a mayoral switch but much has changed since July.

Herman Mashaba helped the ANC topple Johannesburg mayor Kabelo Gwamanda last week, with ActionSA in line to take the now-vacant Speaker’s position.

“ActionSA has communicated previously that we would vote to defeat a motion of no confidence [in Tshwane] and this remains the position of the party currently,” Samkelo Mgobozi, ActionSA National Director of Communications, told The Citizen.

“We are currently undergoing a review of the performance of the Tshwane coalition government but, until otherwise indicated, we remain part of the current governing coalition,” he added.

VF Plus wildcard

The VF Plus hold a similar share of the votes and even if ActionSA stick with Brink and the DA, the VF Plus could prove equally problematic for the coalition.

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The VF Plus abandoned the DA in two Western Cape municipalities in recent weeks, removing DA mayors in Oudtshoorn and Langeberg.

In Oudtshoorn, the VF Plus cited a lack of cooperation from then-mayor Chris Macpherson, and have since installed the VF Plus’ Johan Allers as a replacement.

Whether the VF Plus’ government of national unity cooperation can be replicated in Lesufi’s Gauteng remains to be seen.

The City of Johannesburg will elect a new speaker on 21 August, which could indicate the strength of the ANC-ActionSA ties.

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