Ace Magashule has nothing up his sleeve – political analyst

ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule will be committing political suicide if he challenges Cyril Ramaphosa for the ANC presidency in future and forming a breakaway party was not the best option either – as he could find himself in the political wilderness.

This was the view of political analyst Professor Sethulego Matebesi, who said breaking away from the ANC did not guarantee support for any leader.

Even an ANC president who might break away would struggle to muster enough votes at national elections.

Another analyst, Zakhele Ndlovu, said trying to establish a splinter party would be futile for Magashule. Ndlovu said Magashule’s image was tainted.

However, he noted that when Zuma contested Thabo Mbeki in Polokwane, his image was worse, with allegations of arms deal corruption and rape charges hanging over his head. But he won the race nevertheless.

“If he tries his luck to challenge for ANC presidency, who knows, anything could happen in ANC politics.”

Matebesi, of the University of the Free State, said Magashule was not as powerful as he was perceived to be, with minimal support in the country.

This support was scattered in small pockets over the country with slightly higher concentrations in the Free State, North West and KwaZulu-Natal, due to allies in those provinces.

Even in the Free State, he did not enjoy full backing from party members as some had been opposed to his leadership as provincial ANC chair, then premier.

His opponents, led by his rival, Mxolisi Dukwana, have been calling for him to step down. His backing in North West was due to his alliance with Supra Mahumapelo and similarly in KZN he relied on Zuma supporters and that was not enough to contest at national level.

“One should not see the support he gets during his court appearances and translate that into a national support.

“He does have some support but it’s something else to contest for a national position like that of the ANC president, which needs one to have solid support countrywide. Magashule does not have that.”

The recent Supreme Court of Appeal ruling to declare the last Free State provincial conference as unlawful was a huge blow for Magashule’s plans, Matebesi said.

Ndlovu said Ramaphosa would not like to be seen to be pushing Magashule out. Instead he could try to find a political solution to the matter.

According to Matebesi, a glaring weakness in Magashule’s strategy was to let his campaign be led by radical economic transformation leaders such as Carl Niehaus, who sullied the ANC’s image and undermined the constitution.

ericn@citizen.co.za

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