Nasrec, 3 years later: Zuma camp not dead and buried yet

The Zuma camp may be dying but it is not dead and buried yet… and there are moves to revive it without Jacob Zuma. But will it become a serious political player in future?

The Commission of Inquiry into State Capture and the investigations by the Hawks have revealed more and more cases of state capture involving this camp.

Most of the Zuma camp heavyweights are lined up for future criminal cases. A few are keeping a low profile, perhaps to reawaken towards the next ANC national conference in 2022.

Bathabile Dlamini, Malusi Gigaba and Nomvula Mokonyane have kept a low profile after their public shows in courts and the commission of inquiry. Bongani Bongo was charged with bribery following a fallout over allegations of bribing a parliamentary official.

Ace Magashule was recently charged with corruption emanating from the Free State asbestos housing project graft. He was released on R200 000 bail by a Bloemfontein court.

With Magashule as their last hope and “heir” to Zuma, if he goes to jail for corruption his followers will be left in limbo. Unless they find a new factional leader to replace him, they must forget about challenging Cyril Ramaphosa.

But they must not count on Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who would not be keen to continue on that path. She was pushed into it to infuse a “Zuma” factor into the Nasrec campaign but she was never a factionalist.

Many political analysts saw Dlamini-Zuma as a state functionary, a technocrat who preferred to work behind the scenes. She was credited for turning around the department of home affairs in the Zuma administration. She defeated the influential tobacco lobby by imposing smoking bans as Nelson Mandela’s first minister of health.

As Thabo Mbeki’s minister of foreign affairs, South Africa had a strong voice and presence in African and world affairs. She felt at home doing state duties instead of fighting party factional battles and powermongering, a dirty game she reluctantly played as the Nasrec conference approached.

Interestingly, Jacob Zuma’s son, Duduzane, recently expressed interest in joining politics, perhaps to walk in his father’s shoes. The campaign for him to be the future ANC president began on social media and included popularising him via the “Zooming with Zumas” video series designed to expose party dirty linen in public.

But the ANC is not like the institution of traditional leaders, where the eldest son automatically becomes the heir. The ANC believes a member must participate in grassroots structures and rise through the ranks before being elected into the top brass national executive committee. But anything is possible in the post-Polokwane ANC, where principle went out of the window.

The Zuma camp has been weakened, maintained Dr Somadoda Fikeni, a political analyst with a special knowledge of ANC alliance politics.

He said after many of them were implicated in state capture corruption by the commission of inquiry, with some charged and many still to be charged, it would be difficult for them to fight against Ramaphosa in future.

Fikeni argued that by the time the next ANC national conference came around, some would be in jail or too exhausted to come back.

Ramaphosa’s hand appeared to be strengthened, but his camp were not angels. Some Ramaphosa-ites, including his aide Khusela Diko, were found with their hands in the till in the Covid-19 personal protective equipment saga.

This and the CR-17 funding scandal involving Bosasa and big business shook Ramaphosa’s image. Trying to block the publishing of bank statements about funders of his CR-17 campaign was a desperate move.

Again, three years after Nasrec, the North West ANC remained divided. The ANC top six had to embark on another fire-fighting expedition in a bid to bring together various factions that were at each other’s throats. Some vowed that without Supra Mahumapelo, the ANC must not exist and that is the dilemma facing the interim task team imposed by Luthuli House there.

In the Eastern Cape, while appearing to be united, the Zuma camp were mobilising behind the scenes to fight back against Oscar Mabuyane’s provincial executive committee (PEC). An ardent Zuma supporter, Mlibo Qoboshiyane, who is the provincial legislature speaker, and the recently released Andile Lungisa were idling on the sidelines to resuscitate the dead faction. But their strength against the entrenched Ramaphosa camp in the province was questionable.

In the Western Cape, the ANC was still without a provincial structure or PEC. As in the North West, the ANC interim task team had yet to organise a provincial conference to elect a fully-fledged PEC. Now with a PEC in existence, there is nobody to oversee the party deployees in the Western Cape provincial legislature, where the ANC is the opposition.

The ANC’s chances of taking the Cape Town City metro from the Democratic Alliance at the 2021 local government were minimal.

KwaZulu-Natal is one province to watch. After Zuma held KZN for years, the province appeared to have slipped away and under Zikalala has moved towards Ramaphosa. Zikalala had managed to drag KZN out of the Zulu tribal quagmire – the perception that Zuma was supported for being a Zulu, rather than an ANC leader. Zuma was elected in Polokwane amid a “100% Zuluboy” campaign by his followers.

Since Polokwane, at least five of the nine provinces were safely controlled by the Ramaphosa camp: Gauteng, Eastern Cape, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and Northern Cape.

Free State was still in the grip of the Zuma camp and its premier Sisi Ntombela was believed to have been handpicked by Magashule.

Mpumalanga and North West were unclear but with Mabuza backing Ramaphosa, Mpumalanga could be safely said to be on the Ramaphosa side.

Although Mahumapelo was redeployed to parliament and an interim ANC provincial task team established, he still has huge influence in the province and his supporters populate the provincial legislature.

ANC sources said unless Mahumapelo was accommodated in the envisaged PEC, unity would never arrive in North West.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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