2024 coalition government will guarantee ‘disaster’ for SA

The ANC seems resigned to losing its majority in the 2024 general election and yesterday sealed its future cooperation with the Economic Freedom Fighters to form a coalition government after the polls and in the local government sphere.

“Working with the EFF is not just possible, it is something we will do. We will not work with parties that are toxic,” ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said.

‘Ineluctable disaster’

But leadership expert Prof Mazwe Majola believed that if the 2024 general election results in a coalition government, “our country is undoubtedly confronted with an ineluctable disaster”.

“It doesn’t matter whether it’s a proposed DA (Democratic Alliance) moonshot pact or the ANCEFF-led coalition, they are all the same. Maybe we still need one party to win with an outright majority to keep order, stability and harmony. But with coalitions, we will be in a deleterious future,” Majola said.

He said coalition governments in South Africa were causing disorder, disarray, confusion and instability.

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“Judging from the mess and drama emanating from our municipalities, our country is not ready for a coalition government system.

“As things stand right now, our political party leaders are not mature enough to enter into, maintain and sustain coalition governments,” Majola said.

“These political leaders are full of hubris, self-importance and avarice. They are busy fighting for power and positions at the expense of service delivery.”

Following a national executive committee meeting (NEC), ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa said the party would work hard to achieve a decisive electoral victory in 2024. He was in favour of passing legislation to manage a coalition government.

Mbalula said the NEC had adopted a framework on coalition governments. The 10-member national task team would be chaired by Mbalula.

Although the ANC was amenable to work with the EFF, Mbalula dismissed suggestions that the ruling party would cooperate with the Democratic Alliance, saying the DA was a no-no for the ANC.

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Yesterday, he said if no party had a clear majority or the 50% plus one requirement, the collective executive system should be instituted so parties are represented in proportion to their votes and they take collective responsibility to ensure a stable and functional government.

A threshold of the votes each party received in election should be introduced to determine representation in executive positions and this would ensure a degree of legitimacy, he added.

ANC and EFF coalition

Analysts predicted the ruling party’s electoral performance would fall below 50% in 2024 which would force the ANC to consider aligning with the EFF as its anchor coalition partner.

Political analyst Prof Susan Booysen believed the ANC still had a chance to get the 50% plus one majority. Booysen said the ANC would have to concede too much to the EFF, which often has strong constitutional demands.

She said an alliance between the ANC and EFF would adversely affect the public standing of the ANC, which risked being “eaten up” by the EFF.

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“That I feel is the biggest implication of their future alliance.”

Mbalula said the coalition partners must also commit to shared values – stability, accountability, ethics and integrity, community participation, good governance, respect for the constitution and the rule of law, social justice and equity, human dignity, nonracialism, and nonsexism.

But whether the ANC would be able to dictate terms to its coalition partners remained to be seen.

Zondo report

The ANC NEC is to refer all its senior members named in the Zondo report on state capture to the party’s integrity commission.

Among senior members mentioned in the report were party chair Gwede Mantashe, deputy secretary-general Nomvula Mokonyane, NEC member Zizi Kodwa, former state security minister David Mahlobo, former Free State premier Ace Magashule and former State Security Agency chief Arthur Fraser.

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For the first time since the Nelson Mandela era, the ANC took a clear stance on human rights in its foreign relations when it expressed concern at the “passing of legislation in some African countries, proactively criminalising citizens of different sexual orientation”.

This was an apparent reference to Uganda.

– ericn@citizen.co.za