2021 elections likely to have the smallest turnout in SA’s history

The 2021 municipal elections are shaping up to be one with the smallest voter turnout in the country’s history.

According to the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) yesterday, 433 198 first-time voters registered this past weekend, while voters who were reregistering numbered 1 277 811, making for “1.7 million voters registered during the special two-day registration weekend”.

Independent election analyst Dawie Scholtz said after the last elections in 2019 and before the registrations opened over the weekend, the voters’ roll had shrunk by roughly 1.1 million people.

Scholtz added it was completely normal for it to shrink as people die and others emigrate.

“We were at minus 1.1 million before the weekend. When IEC talks about the 1.7 million registrations, they are also referring to everyone who went to change their details, so that’s not new additions, it is just changing the location. New additions to the voting roll were only about 430 000,” Scholtz said.

He said if one did the maths, the IEC was down 1.1. million, up 430 000 which meant they were down by a net 650 000 voters.

“That’s very bad and unprecedented because the voters’ roll always goes up,” he said. Scholtz added the IEC usually registered between one and two million new voters for each election.

“This is not changes of addresses, but actual new voters. It is highly likely that we are going to come in much lighter than we expected,” Scholtz said.

KwaZulu-Natal was the province with the highest registration activity with 358 384 applications, followed by Gauteng with 315 282 applications and the Eastern Cape with 240 514 applications.

Dezi Vermaak from Pretoria north said she was definitely casting her vote in November.

“I just don’t know who to vote for any more,” Vermaak said.

“Everyone just brings empty promises, especially ahead of the elections.

“Afterwards, those promises are not delivered on.” Vermaak said she voted for the Democratic Alliance last time, but wasn’t sure this time around.

“If you drive into our area, all you see is a road full of potholes, water leaks and you name it,” she said.

Jan Msiza, a car guard in Pretoria, said he was voting in hopes to get a better job.

“I live on the street and watch cars for days to make money for food,” Msiza said.

He said he was ready to cast his vote and already knew who he was voting for.

“I am hoping to get work and a decent place to live,” Mzisa added. This year would have been Kyro Anderson from Colbyn’s first time to cast his vote, but the young man said he wouldn’t be doing so.

“Politics is just a game the government plays to obtain power over the people,” Anderson said.

“I get the feeling my vote doesn’t matter anyway.”

Zodwa Nkambule, who sells baskets on a Pretoria East street corner, said she was excited to cast her vote.

“I am voting for change. When I vote I can voice and complain about service delivery,” Nkambule said.

She said she already knew who she was voting for.

“You vote because you are a citizen and you want to build your community,” Nkambule said. Dr Piet Croucamp, political studies and international relations at North-West University, said the IEC fell well short of expectations.

“I suspect they did not reach close to the figures,” he said. Croucamp said out there were millions of unregistered potential voters.

“One has to compare it with the number of potential new voters,” Croucamp said.

“At this stage, all indications are that the registration figures are very low.

“They are not comparable to previous years,” he said.

“We must remember that there are more people in SA who do not vote than those who vote,” Croucamp said.

He said high unemployment, poverty and dependence on grants created a type of political discouragement which caused people’s participation to decrease.

“The signs are clearly there,” Croucamp said.

– marizkac@citizen.co.za