Old and poor of KZN and EC at higher risk of Covid-19 death

A new research study into the threat posed by the Covid-19 pandemic to South African communities has identified the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal as having the highest risk of contamination and potential death rates, mainly due to high levels of poverty and old age.

The report which mapped out the vulnerability of contamination based on living standards and possible death rates by wards (based on age and sex profiles of wards), concluded that vulnerability to contamination overlapped with poverty in most instances.

According to Kevin Allan, managing director of Municipal IQ, a local government data and intelligence organisation, these communities should receive prioritised attention from government and stakeholders working to contain and mitigate the spread of Covid-19.

“As infection rates increase, identifying and targeting areas most susceptible to infection is critical for the optimal deployment of resources to contain the spread of the virus,” said Allan.

He said that being able to identify South African wards with first, the highest risk of infection and second, the highest potential death rate, was an important step in curbing the spread of the virus.

“By enabling resource deployment and coordination from government to initially shield such areas from infection, increase screening and testing and ensuring, in a second phase, that these areas are linked to medical facilities such as hospitals, clinics, and other medical facilities,” he said.

Allan said for a coordinated inter-governmental response, it was crucially important that individual municipal circumstances be considered; firstly, to contain the virus, and secondly, to strictly enforce the lockdown, and prepare treatment facilities where there is a profound risk of critical illness.

“In all these measures, projections and data can be crucial weapons to enable better planning and response and are part of the first-line of defence against the war against the spread of Covid-19,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said based on the day-to-day new infections that had been reported, he was optimistic that the numbers would not be as high as the department had initially projected and the country would make a real impact and flatten the curve if people continued to observe the regulations set out by government.

Mkhize said that 10,000 Community Health Care Workers would be deployed across the country to conduct door to door screening in our most vulnerable communities.

He said the deployment of healthcare workers would be phased in, starting today with 5,400 field workers in Alexandra township.

“I must emphasize that they will be conducting screening and not tests. The field workers will not conduct any tests but will refer any persons suspected of having coronavirus to the nearest CHC, clinic or hospital,” said Mkhize.

Other areas to be targeted include Diepsloot in Johannesburg and Khayelitsha in Cape Town.

Karen Heese, an economist at Municipal IQ, cautioned that projections of possible deaths were based on emerging trends around age and sex that appeared to be consistent around the world.

“There are numerous variables that are particular to South Africa – most worryingly the high incidence of HIV/Aids and TB, especially in wards where this might be untreated – that could change the impact of Covid-19 from our projections,” said Heese.

She said that the Index of Vulnerability to Covid-19 Contagion was broken down by wards across South Africa using Stats SA 2011 Census data projected to 2020 population figures, using 2016 municipal boundaries.

“This index combines seven weighted variables to measure the risk of contagion between residents at a ward level, providing proxies for the challenges that poor residents face in self-isolating: living in informal housing; large household size; inadequate access to water and sanitation; low annual income; reliance on public transport; and high population density.”

“Calculating a score for every ward in the country allows us to identify risk of contagion in five categories from very low to very high,” said Heese.

The organisation said the Index of Possible Death Rate by Age and Sex used Covid-19 death rates in China that found older people of age 80+ had a 14,8% risk of dying, while younger groups had a diminishing risk of dying.

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