Why ‘Last-Minute Mbete’ is keeping us guessing

Don’t expect to hear anything from National Assembly Speaker Baleka Mbete about the no-confidence ballot … she’s likely to leave any announcement to the last minute to avoid taking criticism from the opposition and from civil society.

Mbete has to decide whether the vote on Tuesday on President Jacob Zuma will take place in the open or by secret ballot.

Political analyst Steven Friedman said Mbete may be deliberately delaying her negative announcement until the very last moment because she might want to avoid criticism from opponents and the public.

“The likeliest is that she plans to reject a secret ballot and wants to announce this as late as possible to give those who want secrecy as little time as possible to react.”

The analyst said that even if it was a secret ballot, it would have made no difference anyway.

“It would be very bad for democracy because MPs must vote in the open so that voters can see what they do. But I am sure that is not a factor in her thinking,” Friedman said.

The view came as all eyes are on Mbete, who has to decide on whether the upcoming motion of no confidence, submitted by the opposition DA against Zuma, would be by secret or public ballot.

Mbete’s delay to make the important announcement has left huge room for speculation about what she was up to, with opposition parties ready to chop her to pieces.

Friedman rejected Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema’s notion that 60 ANC MPs would be voting in favour of the motion.

“The 60 votes are a fantasy, they don’t exist and never did,” Friedman said.

Meanwhile, ANC chief whip Jackson Mthembu said voting to oust Jacob Zuma would have disastrous consequences for the country.

“Voting in favour of the motion will be tantamount to throwing a nuclear bomb at our country. The removal of the president will have disastrous consequences that can only have a negative impact on the people of South Africa,” he said.

He said all ANC MPs except a few who had engagements that could not be postponed would attend Tuesday’s sitting.

Mthembu said the only votes to be counted would be of those who would be physically present at the parliamentary sitting.

Any member who would be unable to attend will not have a vote in the motion.

“For you to be counted, you need to vote. Anybody who is not here cannot be counted, you cannot be counted because you have not voted. For you to be counted, whether you voted for or against or abstained, you need to put your mark, either a yes or a no,” Mthembu said.

The tally of ANC MPs has gone down from 249 to 247 following the deaths of two of its MPs recently.

Clarifying the matter, ANC caucus spokesperson Nonceba Mhlauli said the two seats would remain vacant until they were filled again and until then, parliament would have a total of 398 instead of 400.

However, this did not change the ANC parliamentary majority. Mthembu stressed that no ANC MP would be voting with the opposition.

“Who in his right mind from the ANC desk will assist such an opposition in removing the ANC from its government? Nobody in his right mind would do so,” Mthembu said.

He said “only bewitched people will do that”. – ericn@citizen.co.za