Stage 8 likely due to ‘Koeberg copy-paste, spaza shop maintenance’

Eskom implemented stage 6 load shedding “until further notice” – one day before Koeberg’s unit 1 will be taken offline. So how close are we to stage 8?

Too close for comfort, according to energy expert Ted Blom, who predicts we could move to stage 7 (and likely stage 8, too) if the situation “is not resolved by tomorrow”.

To put this in perspective, stage 8 load shedding would mean up to 13 hours of rolling blackouts per day. Under stage 6, we currently have eight hours of blackouts.

SA’s load shedding situation

Brace for stage 7 and stage 8

Blom said if there are additional breakdowns between now and tomorrow, “we’ll immediately move past stage 7 load shedding”.

Why tomorrow? Glad you asked.

The Koeberg power plant’s unit 1 will be taken offline for six months starting tomorrow – a refurbishment project which should have kicked into gear six years ago.

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Update: Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said taking Koeberg offline for planned refuelling and maintenance “had to be done”, but will be ramped down from the initial 920MW cap.

“Unit 1 has been ramping down to the current 659MW over the past few weeks. This will continue ramping down until it’s closed,” Mantshantsha said.

He added: “That’s how you take it offline, deplete the fuel and switch off.”

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Eskom hiding behind ‘diesel excuse’

Moreover, Blom said the true repercussions of the Koeberg refurbishment project have been “hidden from us; Eskom is using diesel as a buffer while the maintenance done is not on spec”.

He said: “It’s been done on the cheap, it’s been done with inferior parts, without proper planning and coordination.”

Back in November, Eskom group chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer said the power utility’s capacity was in “a terrible state due to a lack of funds for diesel”.

Oberholzer said Eskom spent R11.2 billion on open-cycle gas turbines, as of the end of October 2022.

On Wednesday, Blom referred to the current situation at Koeberg as “copy-paste maintenance, not proper engineering maintenance”.

‘Copy-paste spaza shop maintenance’

Blom said Andre De Ruyter has become famous for this “copy-paste maintenance”.

And coupled with the inferior coal currently being used, it’s just a disaster waiting to happen.

Blom added: “We’re running a spaza shop here”.

The rollercoaster ride of going from stage 4 load shedding to stage 3, and then 2, and now stage 6 is “because Eskom is not sticking to its own promises of doing refurbishments as promised in January 2020”.

Blom said President Cyril Ramaphosa should implement a state of emergency because “if it’s not sorted soon, we’ll see stage 8 load shedding before April”.

A hop and skip from stage 6 to 8

When stage 6 was initially implemented in September – for the first time in two years – Eskom said stage 8 would only be on the cards if there was a shortage of 8 000 megawatts.

In other words, the gap between stage 6 and stage 8 is only 2 000 megawatts.

If we do reach stage 8, Eskom would be shedding 8 000 MW a day (which is doubled the frequency of stage 4 blackouts).

This would result in six outages a day, or between 12 and 13 hours.

ALSO READ: Load shedding: This is what stage 8 would look like

Blom’s earlier prediction checked out

Blom warned of a move to stage 8 back in November already, when Eskom received a boost of 50 million litres of diesel courtesy of PetroSA.

While the 50 million-litre donation sounds impressive, it wouldn’t have lasted longer than 10 days – at best, being akin to using a band-aid to cover a surgical incision.

At the time, Blom predicted that we’d be saddled with stage 6 load shedding before the end of the year, and now here we are.

At this rate, we might be looking at a total collapse of the grid within the next few months.

ALSO READ: Eskom warns of Koeberg project risk

Koeberg’s R20 billion shutdown

The planned shutdown for 8 December involves taking one unit offline for normal maintenance and refuelling, while three steam generators will be replaced.

The unit is anticipated to return to service only during June 2023, meaning we’ll lose 659MW of generation capacity from the national grid during this 6-month period (previously said to be 920MW).

This project will cost more than R20 billion.

The first phase of Koeberg’s refurbishment (taking unit 2 offline) was implemented on 17 January 2022 for a period of five months.

The second phase (taking unit 1 offline) happens tomorrow, 8 December 2022.

ALSO READ: This graph shows the hourly load shedding distribution during 2022

Incompetence at Koeberg

Back in July, Energy activist Peter Bekker said the Koeberg power plant was a wasted expense which only added to South Africa’s load shedding woes.

Units are constantly taken offline at Koeberg for maintenance or refuelling.

And scheduled maintenance projects were often delayed due to “some form of incompetence at the Koeberg plant”, Bekker said.

NOW READ: Eskom delays replacement of Koeberg steam generators to avoid load shedding risk

• This article had been updated with comment from Eskom on Blom’s allegations.