Power cuts likely in next three months – energy expert

Energy analysts have forecast stable electricity for the festive season, with only a slight chance of power cuts over Christmas after Eskom implemented Stage 2 load shedding to replenish its emergency generation reserves.

Eskom warned yesterday that 8 229 megawatts (MW) had been lost due to units on planned maintenance, while another 10 661 MW of capacity was unavailable due to unplanned maintenance.

Chris Yelland, an energy analyst and managing director at EE Business Intelligence, said Eskom’s outlook for the next three months was labeled “red”. Yelland said this meant there was a strong possibility of load shedding. There was, however, a lesser chance of load shedding expected between Christmas and New Year’s due to traditionally lower demand at these times.

“The week around Christmas and New Years was marked yellow, meaning there was some risk of load shedding but not a high risk,” Yelland explained.

He said the load shedding experienced on Saturday was because the two-emergency reserves were running consistently during the week to meet the demand.

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“The open cycle gas turbine in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, which runs on diesel, should only be used in emergencies, but it has been running the whole week. The pumped water storage scheme. which is a hydro water station in the Drakensberg and the Western Cape, has also been running during the week.”

Yelland said the diesel and water systems were depleted after a week and needed to be replenished for a few days before they can be used again. “The impact on the economy isn’t so big if load shedding is implemented over the weekend,” Yelland said.

Economist Iraj Abedian said Eskom was saddled with a set of generation stations way past their economically viable date.

“Furthermore, they have not been maintained so their reliability has been further undermined. This is not surprising at all,” said Abedian.

He said 55% of Eskom’s generation capacity fell under “risky and unreliable”.

“What is highly concerning is the fact that government has not accelerated the private sector generation to create capacity as fast as possible for the economy to be freed from Eskom’s hold.”

He said Eskom will not get on its feet for years to come.

“It does not have the funds needed, neither does it have the skills base needed,” he said.

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