Permanent stage 4 load shedding in 2023 a possibility

Eskom’s outlook for load shedding looks bleak for 2023, with some experts warning that the country’s electricity crisis could go as bad as a permanent average stage 4 load shedding – and an occasional stage 10.

Following outgoing chief executive André de Ruyter’s warning that SA’s electricity woes would be dire in 2023, the power utility’s 2023 financial year outlook was grim: it was expected to suffer a net loss of more than R20 billion next year.

“We will have one Koeberg unit offline for the whole of next year, so that takes of 920MW off the grid. The outlook for the rest of next year is going to be very constrained,” De Ruyter said.

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Brace for permanent stage 4

Energy expert Clyde Mallinson agreed with De Ruyter and said while it may fluctuate between other stages, less than four or higher, on average South Africans should brace themselves for a permanent average stage 4 in 2023.

“If we have the same demand profile in 2023 as we had this year and those figures remain the same with 18 000MW coal working and 22 000MW not working, it will be an average of stage 4, but we might even reach stage 10 in winter.”

He said with the nominal installed electricity generation capacity in South Africa for next year, and the expected contribution to output, indications showed there would be a shortfall of at least 32TWh (Terawatt-hour).

“Our shortfall could be as much as 30TWh, which is a shortfall of 15% of what the country needs and uses and that is dire.

“So, it’s extremely bleak because in the last couple of months we’ve had less than half the coal fleet available,” said Mallinson.

Stage 8 and even stage 10 a possibility

Energy analyst Ted Blom previously predicted that SA was moving closer towards a stage 8 total grid meltdown.

“The chances are more than 70%”. Stage 8 load shedding means 8 000MW of energy would be pulled from the grid, leaving consumers without electricity for 12 to 14 hours a day.

“Stage 8 is very possible, because [the] Koeberg [situation] will lead to stage 7 automatically unless a miracle happens. There is no diesel cushion to break the free fall.”

Eskom yesterday announced stage 4 load shedding was implemented with immediate effect until 5am today, due to a breakdown of four generating units and delays in returning some units to service.

Stage 3 load shedding will be implemented from 5am until 4pm daily. Stage 4 load shedding will be implemented daily at 4pm to 5am, with this pattern expected to be repeated daily until further notice.

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On Monday, the power utility announced stage 1 would be implemented from 5am until further notice due to the lower demand for electricity during the day.

The situation then changed again on Tuesday, with the return of stage 3, which was meant to be in place for the remainder of this week.

– reitumetsem@citizen.co.za