Load shedding, unemployment combo could trigger a wave of violence over SA

Eskom’s power cuts are worryingly attracting more crime and violence for businesses and communities, while government’s ability to control social unrest is waning.

This is according to security experts, who on Tuesday tackled the impact of electricity blackouts on the country’s security.

They said the impact of power cuts on job losses and food security could trigger another violent wave, as people are becoming more despondent and impatient with the state.

‘Scale of unrest could be bigger’

As communities voice their disdain at the planned electricity tariff hike and power cuts, while opposition parties plan protests and court action, possible social unrest could pose a serious problem for the state, said the head of crime and justice programme at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Gareth Newman.

“If we face something very extreme such as the collapse of a grid – although load shedding was implemented to prevent that in the first place – if that would happen, the scale of unrest would be far greater than what the state apparatus could respond to.

“Not all security operations are deteriorating though. There are still excellent officers, especially with their cooperation with private security across the country.”

“But load shedding is a concern – we’ve seen businesses closing down, meaning unemployment is rising further, there are also potential food shortages – all that could cause a trigger. Security agencies need to work together to prevent violence.”

SAPS abilities worsened

He said although work was being done to “hopefully” prevent the 2021 July violence that took place in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal from happening again, the SA Police Service (SAPS) should be overhauled as more money is poured into the department with no improved performance.

“My understanding is that there have been some successful operations where violence has been prevented, especially in instances where police work with private security companies.

“The SAPS’ ability to solve murders dropped by 50% while the annual budget increased by 70%. But the system – that ability to recruit capable people and hold everyone accountable should be completely be re-looked at, and it starts at the top. It is a leadership issue. We need to overhaul policing in our country to make us safer. We are putting more money in the system with no tangible outcomes.”

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Newman added that any widespread unrest could see police unprepared to act quickly, as it happened two years ago.

“There shouldn’t be blocking of highways by protestors, it should be police preventing that from happening on the freeways. The ability to be proactive and responsive at the police station level is not at the level it should be.

“Any bigger outbreak could also bring to the fore again the problems in the police we witnessed in 2021.”

‘Government hasn’t learned from 2021 unrest’

Newham remarked that SA National Defence Force’s (SANDF) planned joint military exercises with China and Russia should be taking place frequently to improve defence abilities even without assistance from other countries.

“We see our military doing maritime war games with China and Russia, we should be seeing them [doing this] along with SAPS, metro police, home affairs and other departments doing annually to ensure that the kind of violence that took place in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in 2021 can be immediately responded to in the future, so that they can test their intelligence gathering and response systems, but we haven’t seen that.

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“It’s not clear whether the government is able to take the lessons. There’s a whole host of reports going back to 2011, talking about the serious crisis in the police and many other commissions of inquiry since then. Take those recommendations and reform SAPS and put us on a path where the police can use its billion Rand budget to get on top of the relatively small numbers of people causing the violence scourge in this country.”

‘Growing appetite for lawlessness’

According to Lunga Dwebal, a military and conflict analyst at security company Geopolitical Intelligence Advisory, most crimes don’t involve serious planning but they are successfully carried out, such as the 2021 unrest.

Growing unemployment fuels crime leading to more lawlessness, he said.

“Those that planned all that criminality are not known, except those arrested were not the actual planners of the violence. Of great concern for load shedding are acts that are planned and executed and the criminals disappear without a trace,” said Dwabela.

For the cash-in-transit industry, the spate of heists is not affected by blackouts, said Cash-in-Transit Association of SA’s Grant Clark.

He said attacks on vehicles transporting cash happened even when there were no power cuts, showing that criminals do not care whether they pose danger to the public.

But it costs a lot of money for businesses to keep their security systems running when there’s no power, he added.

“From a cash processing point of view, systems around CCTV cameras and branch security have to run every day without fault. It costs a lot of money to run those 24/7.

“Diesel costs go up all the time. Maintaining solar systems also come with its own costs and meanwhile you have over 3500 vehicles out there collecting or delivering cash every day from clients. When you get to a client who does not have electricity you skip that stop to move to the next one, putting risks on vehicles as they have to return, putting them on the road longer than is required. So a total blackout would be disastrous for the cash industry.”

Implications on banking

Regarding the banking system, a total collapse of the grid would mean a switch to cash, said Sabric CEO Nischal Mewalall.

He said the banking sector is for now minimally affected by the blackouts except when clients are unable to make transactions online on their devices.

“The implication will be that cash will become king, but the system will never fully implode. What we observed is that in spaces where load shedding is not very frequent, customers migrate to the ATMs in those areas. And hoarding cash in fear of total blackout is not advisable, it is a security risk for you.

“So what happens when there’s no movement of cash by the CIT industry? Not good, I am afraid because we are still a cash-intensive country. There will be a negative impact on economic growth if we find ourselves with no access to cash. ATMs play an important role in our communities,” said Mewalall.

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