What about future outages? Energy analyst gives dire load shedding warning

South Africans were shocked at the return of load shedding over the weekend and it was ramped up within a few hours to stage 6 on Sunday morning.

Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa claimed on Sunday that the current bout of load shedding was a result of Eskom’s aggressive maintenance plan. Initially, Eskom implemented stage 3 load shedding on Saturday afternoon, but residents woke up to stage 6 blackouts on Sunday which were implemented at 1:30am.

Load shedding is back

“This measure followed the implementation of stage 3, necessitated by multiple unit trips at Majuba Power Station and a unit trip at Medupi that resulted in a loss of 3 864MW in generation capacity, while planned maintenance accounted for 7 506MW,” said Eskom.

“Additionally, to replenish emergency reserves and prepare for the week ahead, stage 6 load shedding was essential.”

ALSO READ: ‘Short-term pain, long-term gain’ – Eskom explains when load shedding will end

Ramokgopa said the return of load shedding was expected, but this was not communicated to residents and businesses prior to implementation.

Eskom’s ‘aggressive’ maintenance

“We are guided by the generation recovery plan, which places front-centre investments on the installed fleet, ensuring these machines are reliable.

“As part of that, we had to up our maintenance. So we had to go to levels of maintenance that have not been recorded recently.

“Our planned maintenance is sitting at 7 500MW, which is significantly higher than the same period last year. We have accepted that there are inherent risks in this decision [aggressive maintenance] that we have taken.”

ALSO READ: ‘Government incapable of solving energy crisis’: Political parties react to Stage 6 load shedding

Why aggressive maintenance?

“We can be a bit conservative, but we will place a number of units at risk. When they fail it might be catastrophic and require significantly greater decisions to protect the grid.”

The minister said Eskom would continue with the aggressive maintenance plan to make sure the power utility continued to function as necessary. He dismissed the allegation of sabotage.

Eskom on the right track

Energy expert Chris Yelland said Eskom had not yet won the fight against load shedding, but it was on the right track.

“They now need to focus on what we call the balance of plants. The problem is that they were focusing on the generators and they now need to focus on balancing the main generational plants.

“The minister indicated that they will be focusing on that, as well. My advice is that they must prioritise the most important things and remain focused because we are on the right track. They must not give up.”

Another energy expert, Ruse Moleshe, shared these views.

“Although SA has been making progress regarding load shedding, the system remains at risk. This is because we do not have sufficient reserve capacity to back up unforeseen outages.

“In addition, Eskom typically does most of the maintenance in summer. So a lot of capacity [7 500MW] has been out on planned maintenance.

“As long as there is no significant reserve the risk remains. It is a relief that what went wrong relates to the balance of plants, not the main turbines and generators.”

ALSO READ: Stage 6 load shedding embarrasses South Africa in front of the world, says Maimane

Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse CEO Wayne Duvenage said it was still early to win the battle against load shedding.

“There is still a long way to go. The government must not shield municipalities when it comes to money owed to Eskom. They must pay so Eskom can fix some of its problems.”

Business Unity SA’s energy and environment director Happy Khambule said the system was expected to go back to normal before the end of this week. He said SA needed more power-generating sources, especially from the private sector.

• Additional reporting by Vhahangwele Nemakonde