Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa faces increasing load shedding worries as Koeberg 1 will be offline until at least September. Image: Siyabulela Duda/GCIS
Until such time that the Department of Minerals Resources and Energy (DMRE) makes the programme of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) work, South Africa will continue to experience a shortage of generation on the electricity grid, and there is little even the electricity minister can do about it.
This is according to energy expert Hilton Trollip who was reacting to the latest developments around Eskom’s state of disaster (SOD) which was withdrawn by government on Wednesday.
Questions have been asked about the real state of the electricity situation following government’s announcement on Wednesday.
ALSO READ: Govt withdraws Eskom’s national state of disaster on electricity
Speaking to The Citizen, Trollip said it will be very difficult for Eskom to fix the country’s ailing power stations.
“DMRE must get the IPP programme working and then when the additional power gets onto the grid, there will be more space for Eskom to do the maintenance it needs to do. Until then, it’s just going to struggle and things will get worse,” said Trollip.
Trollip said the new Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa appears to be no more than a public relations propaganda expert.
“In fact, his PHD is in public affairs, which is kind of corporate messaging and we’ve seen now that he has just been basically producing spin. Even the one week of lower load shedding, I believe was a manipulated situation.
“As much as we don’t need the SOD, we also don’t need the electricity minister and, in my opinion, making a political appointment of a person who then goes and works inside an organisation which has existing management and governance structures, just makes it more difficult for the Eskom management team.”
He said there is an attempt by government, through the appointment of the new Eskom board and the electricity minister, to cover up their failings and produce positive perceptions, instead of dealing with load shedding and its main causes such as corruption.
In short, government would rather look like its dealing with the problem than actually doing so.
While giving an update on the country’s electricity situation, Ramakgopa said the demand still far outstrips supply.
According to Ramokgopa, the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is currently at about 53%, which explains the deficit gap between demand and supply.
Also Read: Here’s how Eskom’s power stations are performing – it’s not good
Ramakgopa is of the view the solution is to ramp up generation and reduce demand, but stressed that this should be done not to undermine the ability of residents and the economy to meet daily demands.
South Africa’s peak demand is usually between 5.30am and 8am as well as between 6pm and 8pm daily, while it plateaus during the day.
Ramaokgopa visited the country’s power stations in recent weeks and gave key findings of the situation there.
He said the 14 power stations are categorised in three different tiers.
Those found in Tier 1 are Kusile and Medupi, while the older ones fall under Tier 2 and 3.
52% of the country’s installed capacity sits with the two power stations.
Medupi was commissioned over a period of time. It has six units and the first unit was commissioned in 2015 and the last one in 2021.
Unit 4 of Medupi failed due to a fire in August of 2021. The unit in question is yet to come back online.
“The EFA of the 5 units at Medupi is about 70%.”
According to Ramokgopa, the premature failure of units are a result of corruption and cutting of corners, which South Africans are now paying the penalty for.
“For a station this young to experience a failure rate sitting at around 24% is concerning.
“The speed for procuring or the replacement of parts, requires urgent attention and the intervention needed there has little to do with state of sisaster.”
The SOD has since been withdrawn by government.
ALSO READ: Govt withdraws Eskom’s national state of disaster on electricity
Ramokgopa stressed that interventions required there are more at a management level.
Kusile’s first unit was commissioned in 2017 and it is still in the process of commissioning other units.
The EAF there is currently at 37.4%.
Of the 4 units there, three are currently out due to significant failures.
Eskom asked for exemption of emission levels and Minister Creecy granted the exemption.
Unit 1 is expected online on December 11 while Unit 2 on December 24, and this will bring an additional 2 200MW on the grid.
“We are expecting another unit to come on stream in February of 2024, and this will mean an additional 700MW,” Ramokgopa said.
The EFA was at around 36.4%, less than 2000mw due to major problems, according to Ramokgopa.
“There are a number of options available to address the issues at Kendal and we will present them to Cabinet, who will in turn make a determination,” Ramokgopa said.
Matima is one of the best performing power stations with an EFA of 75%.
The first unit at Matimba was commissioned in 1987 and the last one in 1991.
“When units are down, parts are not readily available in some instances and this is a planning issue, and planning is also undermined by procurement.
“The quality of the coal is also another challenge and we can’t blame the miner. It is our inability to invest in our mines, Ramokgopa said.
The first unit was commissioned in1996 and the last one in 2001.
The EFA is at 47.95% and the situation there requires collective management, according to Ramokgopa.
Lethabo is one of best performing power stations with an EFA of 73.81%.
The quality of the coal is also an issue at the 38-year-old power station.
The first unit was commissioned in 1985 and Ramokgopa is of the opinion that the age of the power station has nothing to do with performance.
Thuthuka has 36 000MW of installed capacity but it has one of the worst performances of 26.02%.
Some of the problems at Thuthuka is that Units 1-3 are old and there are also issues of design flaws.
“We need to re-invest the same way we did in units 4, 5 and 6. Yes, some of the challenges raised at Thuthuka are the constraints on Eskom’s balance sheet but we need not limit ourselves to the Eskom balance sheet.
“Unit 3, there it has been out since December because they can’t detect what the route course is and this is a power station that is meant to be decommissioned in 2030… Cabinet must decide on this,” said Ramokgopa.
Other issues experienced there also include the quality of the coal, losing experienced engineers and the moral among staff members, according to Ramokgopa, is low as they don’t see a future there.
Some of the power stations falling under Tier 3 are the ones that have been in operation for more than 50 years.
Units 2 and 3 are to be decommissioned by 2026.
Ramokgopa believes their lifespans can be extended to protect South Africans.
Three units are currently out of commission with two more units to go out by June.
This power station is meant to close down by 2025.
Unit 1 has been in operation since 1984 and is currently out, while Unit 2 is expected back online when Unit 1 is returned.
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