Eskom stumbles into 2024: Any improvement will be in lower stages of load shedding

Next year is going to be another difficult year for Eskom and South Africa, as the power utility works with a fragile system.

The embattled utility yesterday revealed, due to consistent improvement in available generating capacity, load shedding will continue to be suspended until 4pm next Friday.

Eskom said it would closely monitor the power system and communicate should any significant changes occur.

Eskom was taking advantage of the lower demand during the festive season

In terms of maintenance, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa had earlier said Eskom was taking advantage of the lower demand during the festive season to do much-needed maintenance on its generating units.

“It is important that during this period of low demand, we can take this opportunity to ensure we accelerate maintenance,” he said.

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“What has been our experience is that when the units have gone out on planned maintenance and when they return, on average they continue to perform and remain on load.

“We are going to benefit if we continue on this path of planned maintenance.”

335 days of load shedding this year

According to data from loadshed.theoutlier.co.za, South Africa has had 335 days of load shedding this year, compared to 205 days in 2022, and 75 days in 2021.

May this year had the most hours of load shedding, alternating between stages 5 and 6.

Energy expert Ruse Moleshe said it was difficult to predict what the outlook was for 2024, because Eskom had a fragile system from a supply-and-demand point of view.

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Moleshe said next year would not be without load shedding.

“If we have improvement, it will be lower stages of load shedding,” she said.

“I remember we had the three units from Kusile off because of the flue-gas desulphurisation (chimneys), but they are back on stream now.

“Koeberg unit one was also off, so we had a lot more units off and a lot more instability at Eskom.

“We did not even have leadership in place at some point.” Moleshe said a much higher level of maintenance was still needed.

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“At times you get units that are off purely related to unplanned outages,” she said.

“But now we have unplanned outages and a significant number of planned outages, which bodes well for the future, because you can consistently put units out in significant capacity.

“Although it reduces the supply that you need, it helps in the long run when you can do maintenance,” said Moleshe.

“So in 2023, we had Kusile units that were off and relatively more, even during winter which is not typical, plus there was more capacity out due to planned maintenance, which is why there was more load shedding.”

Things would likely change next year

While the country had 17 days without load shedding this month, Moleshe said things would likely change next year and lower or higher stages of load shedding would return.

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During this period, factories, mining companies and other users were not using energy, resulting in a significant reduction in the demand for electricity.

Moleshe said, however, when the economy started up again and people returned to work, the demand would also go up.

“The system itself, the supply side, remains fragile, so if anything goes wrong and the demand has gone up, it will again strain the system and we will see a bit of load shedding intermittently,” she said. “Depending on how well the system is managed, we will see lower or higher stages of load shedding.

“As long as the system remains fragile and there is no significant reserve margin or capacity, SA will continue to experience load shedding.”