Eskom in dire state: Will power utility run out of money or diesel first?

Stage 4 load shedding will carry on until “at least” Wednesday thanks to nearly 20,000MW being unavailable due to planned maintenance and breakdowns, Eskom said.

On Saturday night, spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha revealed the evening feedback, where the total demand was at 31,950MW, with load shedding at 4,110MW but the available generation capacity was at 28,038MW.

Demand was way over the available supply.

“We currently have 3,894MW on planned maintenance, while another 15,472MW of capacity is unavailable due to breakdowns,” he said yesterday when announcing the load shedding continuation.

Eskom in dire state

Energy expert Clyde Mallinson said things were unfolding “pretty much” as predicted.

Mallinson said the response to the 2019 December stage six load shedding events, in the form of the risk mitigation programme, was poor, slow and not fit for purpose, given the nature of the crises and emergency SA was currently in.

“SA was now even more deeply embedded in it,” he said.

Mallinson said the situation was dire, as his model of the power system at the moment assumed no constraints on diesel supply, which was not the case in reality.

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“In other words, the diesel Open Gas Turbines could not run as much as indicated, they would run out of diesel,” he said.

“In fact, it would be a race as to whether Eskom ran out of money for diesel, or [if it] ran out of diesel.”

Mantshantsha said the continued load shedding was due to unlawful and unprotected labour action at a number of power stations.

“Furthermore, at a number of power stations, the full staff complement has not reported for duty.”

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Stage 4 load shedding extended due to ‘unlawful action’ at power stations

Wage disputes

Energy economist and specialist Lungile Mashele said Eskom would continue to load shed as this was driven largely by the wage dispute and unplanned maintenance in excess of 15,000MW.

“We can’t rule out anything this week. However, they do need to get a handle on their labour issues, even if it means calling in additional security and police.”

Mashele said about 4,000MW was at risk due to strike action as well, and this could easily take the country to stage six or higher.

“There’s also a need to replenish hydro and diesel reserves, which means the Wednesday timeline given will have to be extended,” she said.

Strikers can’t hold SA to ransom