Could the Russians have a plan to save SA from its electricity quagmire?

Given South Africa’s energy quagmire, which has led to Eskom resorting to rolling power cuts to prevent collapse of the grid, Russia could be exploring a solution to the country’s power challenges, according to University of South Africa political science professor, Dirk Kotze.

Kotze, who has for several years been keenly following political and economic developments in Russia, was commenting on the recent trip to South Africa by Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov – President Vladimir Putin’s special representative for Africa and the Middle East.

During his lowkey visit, Bogdanov met President Cyril Ramaphosa and some members of his executive, who included Trade and Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel.

Nuclear or gas?

While not much has been disclosed by either South Africa or Russia on discussions involving both countries, Kotze said Russia could be looking at “a potential solution, given the current Eskom crisis – as a partner or potential client”.

Said Kotze: “Once Eskom plans don’t bear fruit, they (Russians) can come in as an alternative option.

“We know that during (former president) Jacob Zuma’s era, they focused on nuclear issues – off the map at the moment, although government talks about smaller nuclear programmes.”

Russia, he said, “has over time, concentrated on two areas: the provision of energy, which includes power stations and gas pipelines – especially around the Mediterranean and North African countries – Algeria and Libya, where they want to create much closer links”.

“Russia is also involved in the selling of military arms – wanting to revitalise their arms industry and trying to market their arms to African countries – something they have been doing in India over a long period,” said Kotze.

He said Africa was very important to the old Soviet Union during the reign of Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev and Yuri Andropov.

Kotze: “After 1990, there was a dramatic decline in the prominence of Africa within the Russian foreign policy.

“Last year, Russia became the chair of Brics [five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] and was quite active in that respect.

“Russia is trying to enhance their position worldwide – as part of president Putin’s policy of putting the country back in the global scale.

“Russia has concerns about developments in northern Mozambique, with a private military group having earlier tried to assist the Mozambican government.

“As part of the offshore gas industry that has been developed in Mozambique, Russia is one of the leading gas providers in the world.

“They have serious interest in new gas development in Mozambique, watching happenings in that country closely.

“Although French companies are there, they very much want to become part of this.”

Reflecting on engagements with the South African government, Bogdanov told journalists before jetting out of the country: “We talked with president Ramaphosa about the history of Russia-SA relations. 

“Next year is the 30th anniversary of the establishment of official diplomatic relations between the two countries.

“We have strong connections – especially during the fight against apartheid and the yoke of colonialism in South Africa – going far before 1994.

‘The world is changing’

“The world is changing. However, we seek to foster stronger relations based on mutual respect – due to trust built in our relations.

“We are looking at building strong bilateral relations in the areas of science, economy, military technical cooperation and in multilateral forums such as Brics and G20.”

He described Afghanistan as “a truly sad story”.

His father worked in Kabul in 1978 and 1979, “with the situation changing rapidly”.

Said Bogdanov: “Unfortunately, our Western partners cooperated with Osama Bin Laden’s al-Qaeda, to overthrow the Marxist communist regime.

“And there was change when the Taliban came to power. It happened twice actually, when the West tried to fight the Taliban. They brought people from abroad to establish a new order, with Ashraf Ghani as president.

“After 20 years this ended up in the fiasco and haste that we have seen. With the US having left a lot of weapons in Afghanistan, who is going to use them and how, remains a mystery. When the Taliban returned to power with all their ideology, it was a new migration flow.

“Now we have collective discussions in Russia on how to deal with the people now ruling that country.

“The 20 years of US occupation, resulted in volumes in the drug trade – as we know that Afghanistan is the top producer of opium and heroin.

“That is why, we had to join many other countries in establishing contact with the Taliban.

“While we are hosting discussions, no one is hasty with recognising the Taliban government – in a political and legal sense.

“Our embassy and ambassador in Kabul are working to have contact with the Taliban.”

brians@citizen.co.za