Level 1 lockdown gatherings ‘a disaster waiting to happen’

While the government has succumbed to the pressures of those asking for more relaxed lockdown regulations, experts have warned that permitting large gatherings is a disaster waiting to happen should they not be managed properly.

The country moved to lockdown level 1 following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement on Sunday night. This permits the resumption of normal liquor trading hours, while religious, social, cultural and political gatherings are permitted, subject to social distancing regulations and health protocols.

Big events could cause the next wave of infections

A blanket approach to regulations, instead of assessing which restrictions worked best in which circumstances, may not be the best approach to follow, said Wits School of Governance Professor Alex van den Heever.

It was the restrictions on gatherings imposed in December which contributed to the downward spike in infections, as gatherings were the cause of the November and December surge, he said.

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“The restrictions imposed on 27 December were effective in targeting gatherings and they worked while we still left larger parts of the economy open.”

Gatherings are now limited to 100 people indoors and 250 outdoors or 50% of the venue’s capacity. But people could ignore this, subsequently causing the next surge. The population need to be vaccinated first, he said.

“Big events, parties and large church groupings and political events remain a threat and those are allowed now, but not at large capacity.

“The question is how will it be enforced? I feel people will ignore the regulations, which would probably cause the next round [of infections]. There was political pressure for political gatherings and pressure for large church gatherings. But that is a disaster waiting to happen and we can’t do that until we vaccinate the population,” Van den Heever said.

He said a third wave of infections was likely in the next two to three months.

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Risk of a new variant high, as not enough people are vaccinated

“The restrictions are easy to administer because they are blanket restrictions and when they are pulled back, people think regulations allow them to do certain things, so it soon turns into another surge.”

While the recent decline in infections was also due to changes in behaviour and infected communities accumulating immunity, those previously infected could catch a new variant. A large portion of the population is at risk as it has not previously been infected, Stellenbosch University professor Dr Jo Barnes says.

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“You can’t bank on the fact that so many people have had it (before), because we are not nearly approaching half of the population. There is an opportunity for infections to jump. I would like to see more emphasis on keeping ourselves safe as we vaccinate more people,” she said.

rorisangk@citizen.co.za

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