‘High stakes’ in ANC Northern Cape leadership contest

Battle lines are drawn for a bruising contest for the ANC leadership in the Northern Cape between provincial secretary Zamani Saul and Premier Sylvia Lucas, the outcome of which would be closely watched by the Zuma and the Ramaphosa camps, as it will impact the party’s national elective situation.

Political analyst Prof André Duvenhage said the results of the elective provincial conference, to be held next month, would be very important to indicate who might win the ANC succession race between deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and outgoing African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma in December.

Saul, who grew up politically within the ANC structures, including the Congress of South African Students, South African Youth Congress and ANC Youth League, before being elected deputy secretary and later secretary, is standing for chairperson against Lucas. Lucas is a novice with no leadership credentials until she was elected to replace the late Yolanda Botha as party provincial treasurer.

One slate that had been doing the rounds in the province has Saul vying for provincial chairperson, Kenny Moeiemang for deputy chairperson, Deshi Ngxanga for secretary, SACP provincial chairperson Maruping Lekwene for deputy secretary and Fufe Makatong for provincial treasurer. The Lucas slate contains only her as provincial chairperson and MEC for cooperative governance and traditional affairs Alvin Botes for secretary.

A source close to the issue said the Saul-Lucas duel is being fought along ethnic lines.

“It’s all about ethnicity. Xhosas want to take over from the coloureds and coloureds say ‘we can’t be ruled by Xhosas’. There is also a high level of character assassination,” the source said.

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The source added that, as things now stand, Saul, who is said to be in the Ramaphosa camp, has a political advantage over Lucas. He also enjoys a huge following in the major regions of Pixley kaSeme and John Taolo Gaetsewe, a factor that guarantees him at least 70% support. But the biggest region, Francis Baard, which includes the capital Kimberley, is divided between him and Lucas.

“The division became pronounced when some ANC members felt they were given a raw deal in the local government elections last year. Saul’s chance was further boosted when he graduated with a Doctor of Laws degree recently,” the source said.

Lucas, who is aligned to the Zuma-supporting Premier League, is being backed by the ANC Youth League in the province.

However, Duvenhage said if Lucas won against Saul, it would put Dlamini-Zuma in a good position because it would boost the Premier League, which supports Dlamini-Zuma, especially if she gets support in Upington and more than 50 percent in Francis Baard.

– ericn@citizen.co.za