Categories: South Africa

Here’s when the fourth Covid-19 wave is expected to hit South Africa

While South Africa is still recovering from the third wave of Covid-19 infections, leading health experts are saying a fourth wave could be here by December.

Fourth wave predictions

Back in June, Professor Salim Abdool Karim told Bhekisisa that SA could almost certainly experience a fourth wave, and based on the data, it is expected to happen in December.

He said a country must have “a very high level of vaccination to stop the fourth wave”, meaning between 70%-80% of the population should be vaccinated.

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Data suggests the current third wave will end around 26 August, ahead of the 18-and-34 age group’s vaccination rollout.

ALSO READ: Vaccinations might open earlier for all adults above 18

Herd immunity

That said, Karim added that “it will likely be a small, mini fourth wave”. He said the severity would depend “on a balance between the prospects of a new immune-escape variant, versus how many people” are vaccinated by then.

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“It’s not necessarily critically important that we get to the government’s goal of vaccinating 40 million people by then, it’s more important that we finish phase two [people of 40 years and older] before December.”

Talks of a fourth wave were also confirmed in July by the Department of Health’s Dr Nicholas Crisp, who said SA had “to get to herd immunity as fast as possible […] and protect the most vulnerable people in the community”.

Covid-19 in South Africa

As of Monday, 17 August, South Africa recorded 7,983 new Covid-19 cases, as per the National Institute for Communicable Diseases‘ (NICD’s) latest figures.

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This brings the total cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed cases to 2,613,569, representing a 21.1% positivity rate. A further 299 Covid-19 related deaths have been reported as well.

“Eastern Cape accounted for 18%; Gauteng and Northern Cape accounted for 9% each; Mpumalanga accounted for 7%; Free State accounted for 6%; North West accounted for 3%; and Limpopo accounted for 1% of today’s new cases,” the institute said.

NOW READ: Vaccine exploitation: Europe lockdown lifted, thanks to jabs from Africa

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Published by
By Cheryl Kahla
Read more on these topics: Coronavirus (Covid-19)