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South Africa should expect better treatment on trade from Kamala Harris than under Donald Trump, who wants the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine to end even before he assumes office, if he wins.
This is the view of experts, who speculated on future American foreign policy under each of the candidates contesting to become the 47th US president in today’s election.
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Political and international relations analyst Dominic Maphaka and diplomacy specialist and risk analyst Dr Kingsley Makhubela both say like incumbent President Joe Biden, Harris would fuel the Ukrainian-Russian and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.
Maphaka said Trump would withdraw military backing for Israel and Ukraine and use his proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end the war – a sentiment shared by Makhubela, who said Trump wanted no war in those areas.
Polls in the US indicated that the two candidates were neck-and-neck as they concluded their campaign in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
These are the must-win states as they determine the candidate’s electoral strength towards the final count.
Maphaka said either candidate would renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which was designed to provide duty-free access to the US markets for sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa.
Maphaka was of the view that if Trump won, he would impose strict conditions on trade with South Africa and other African states.
In a recent article, Ronak Gopaldas, from the Institute for Security Studies, said with Agoa set to expire in 2025, the Act might not be renewed in its current form, or could be revised to better align with US security and economic priorities.
“Whether Agoa is renewed or replaced will depend on how Africa fits into the US’ geopolitical and geo-economic strategy,” Gopaldas wrote.
Maphaka said Harris was likely to promote duty-free access for SA goods and products through the renewal of Agoa and afford the country even more opportunities to increase its exports to the US market.
On the other hand, Trump’s win would see a reawakening of “America First” foreign policy, which promoted the political, security and economic interests of the US at the expense of established bilateral and multilateral relations.
“In other words, Agoa will be renewed under strict conditions. In this case, a win by Trump may see tariffs being imposed against certain South African goods and products, with a claim to protect American business interests. Consequently, this move may affect SA industrialisation efforts,” Maphaka said.
Makhubela said Harris would continue with Biden’s Democrat position to put pressure on South Africa to adjust its policy to be in line with the American approach.
In the process, a Harris Administration would continue Biden’s use of Agoa as blackmail in an attempt to force South Africa to conform to the US requirement and to distance itself from Russia and China.
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“Trump has no interest in Africa, he has no position on Africa because he subscribes to a laissez faire approach.”
It was likely South Africa would face pressure from a Trump administration regarding its positions on Russia and Israel because South Africa was unlikely to be a factor under Trump.
Maphaka said Trump’s “America First” policy included cutting military expenditure channelled to wars that bring little or no benefits to the US.
He said, similarly, Trump may cut military aid to Israel and issue an ultimatum for it to stop attacking Palestine or forget about getting US backing at the United Nations Security Council.
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