Eskom predicts stage 2 load shedding over winter, stage 5 in worst-case scenario

Eskom’s projections indicate that even in the worst-case scenario, load shedding this winter should not reach stage 6 outages.

The power utility briefed the media on Friday regarding its winter plan from April to the end of August.

South Africa has not experienced load shedding for 30 consecutive days as of Friday, the longest stretch so far in 2024.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa previously attributed the decrease in the intensity and frequency of load shedding to planned maintenance.

No load shedding, less diesel usage

In Friday’s briefing, Eskom board chairperson Mteto Nyati indicated that the energy action plan has yielded results for the power utility, although the energy availability factor (EAF) target of 65% by the end of April wasn’t met.

The EAF currently stands at 61%.

Nyati pointed out that even though the goal wasn’t achieved, it was in line with Eskom’s performance plan.

Eskom chief executive officer (CEO) Dan Marokane said in addition to the country not experiencing load shedding over the past month, it was achieved with spending 50% less on diesel compared to the same period last year.

ALSO READ: Eskom’s break from load shedding explained

“We are not burning diesel to the extent that others would like to believe,” Marokane told reporters on Friday.

Eskom anticipates allocating a R30 billion budget for diesel procurement in the current financial year.

The Department of Public Enterprises recently revealed that Eskom has spent R64.78 billion on diesel in the past five years – since May 2019.

The power utility, which burns diesel to power the open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to reduce the stages of load shedding, spent R23 billion in the past year.

Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan revealed this in his answer to a Democratic Alliance (DA) parliamentary question.

Watch the briefing below:

Winter load shedding projection

Furthermore, Marokane confirmed that the likely scenario suggested that load shedding would be limited to stage 2 “at most” during this year’s winter season.

He said if there are 50 load shedding days under stage 2 during winter, R8.8 billion could be spent on diesel. Unplanned outages of 15 500 megawatts (MW) have been projected in this case.

The worst case scenario will be stage 5 and may see Eskom spend R16 billion on diesel for at least 103 days of the power cuts, while unplanned breakdowns could go up to 17 000MW.

READ MORE: Electricity minister claims reduced load shedding expected in winter

“In the extreme case, where the unreliability increases, that component may go occasionally to stage 5 but we really think that on the basis of what we see and the performance of the fleet, load shedding will stay within stage 2 from our planning perspective,” the Eskom CEO explained.

Eskom’s winter outlook is usually based on three scenarios, one of which aims to limit planned maintenance to around 3 000 MW and unplanned breakdowns to 14 000 MW.

According to Eskom, the power utility implemented load shedding on over 90% of the days between April 2023 and March 2024, though there was a clear decreasing trend and the majority of the rolling blackouts has been managed between stages 2 and 4.

Marokane said unplanned load losses would be a focus area for Eskom during the winter season, where electricity demand tends to increase.

Monde Bala, Eskom executive for distribution, indicated that the utility was working with municipalities across the country to address infrastructure theft, theft and overloading in the winter period.

Meanwhile, Eskom’s executive for generation, Bheki Nxumalo said the utility is targeting 70% EAF by 2025.

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